INTC Stock Tests $110 Support Before Heading to $100 as 18A Delay and Foundry Losses Add to Chip Weakness

Quick overview

Intel shares have extended their decline toward the $100 level as a broad semiconductor selloff overshadows the company’s improving fundamentals and revives concerns over industry valuations.

Intel Rally Loses Momentum as Chip Stocks Retreat

Intel Corporation’s powerful rally has come to an abrupt halt, with shares falling for several consecutive sessions as investors rotate out of semiconductor stocks. After reaching a record high of $142.37 early last week, INTC has retreated sharply, testing support near the $110 level and raising the possibility of a move toward $100 if selling pressure continues.

The reversal mirrors weakness across the broader semiconductor sector, where investors have increasingly questioned whether chip stocks have risen too far, too quickly following months of exceptional gains.

Valuation Concerns Replace Optimism

The recent decline highlights the market’s growing focus on valuation rather than improving corporate fundamentals.

Although Intel has made meaningful progress in its turnaround strategy, investors are becoming more selective as expectations have climbed alongside share prices. The broader semiconductor industry is facing renewed scrutiny as markets debate whether current earnings can justify elevated valuations over the long term.

Attention is now turning toward Intel’s upcoming second-quarter earnings report on July 23, where management will need to demonstrate that operational improvements are translating into sustainable profitability rather than remaining long-term ambitions.

Foundry Business Still Faces Significant Challenges

A major source of investor caution remains Intel’s foundry division, which continues to generate substantial losses while requiring enormous capital investment.

Although the company is investing aggressively to rebuild its manufacturing leadership, analysts generally expect commercial-scale profitability from advanced manufacturing technologies to remain several years away. Intel’s next-generation 18A process continues to make technical progress, but widespread external customer adoption is not expected until late 2026 or 2027.

For now, external foundry revenue remains limited, leaving Intel heavily dependent on its own product portfolio while absorbing the costs of expanding domestic manufacturing capacity.

At the same time, higher supply chain and production expenses have prompted selective price increases across certain consumer and server processors. While these adjustments may help protect margins, they also reflect the ongoing challenges of operating a highly capital-intensive manufacturing business.

Testing the 50 SMA

Intel also continues to operate in an increasingly competitive landscape. NVIDIA Corporation remains the dominant force in AI accelerators, while Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. continues expanding its presence in servers and high-performance computing. At the same time, ARM-based processors are gaining traction among hyperscale cloud providers seeking greater power efficiency.

These competitive pressures mean Intel must continue executing successfully on both product development and foundry expansion if it hopes to strengthen its market position.

INTC Chart Daily – Returning to the Highs

The speed of the upside move and the clear break above $100 indicates that investors are increasingly willing to accumulate shares at perceived value levels. While sustained upside momentum will require further confirmation, the structure has improved meaningfully, despite the recent pullback. The 20 daily SMA held as support for a while but was eventually broken and INTC stock has slipped below the $110 level today, threatening to break below the 50 SMA in yellow which would open the door for $100 again.

Manufacturing Progress Supports Long-Term Outlook

Despite the recent pullback, Intel continues to make progress across several strategic initiatives.

The company has advanced development of its Intel 18A and enhanced 18A-P manufacturing nodes, reporting improvements in power efficiency, performance, and manufacturing readiness. The transition of the 18A-P process into risk production represents another milestone in Intel’s effort to regain technological leadership after several years of manufacturing delays.

Investor sentiment has also been supported by favorable analyst commentary. Earlier this month, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $150, citing expanding artificial intelligence infrastructure as a long-term catalyst for both Intel’s processors and foundry services.

Market speculation surrounding potential future collaboration with Apple on semiconductor manufacturing has also fueled optimism, although no formal agreement has been announced.

Industry Headwinds Continue to Weigh

Company-specific progress has been overshadowed by broader challenges affecting the semiconductor industry.

A sharp selloff across global chip stocks has reflected growing concerns that the AI-driven rally may have become stretched after months of rapid gains. Investors are increasingly debating whether current semiconductor valuations accurately reflect future earnings potential.

Rising graphics memory costs and tighter supplies of GDDR6 components have also created concerns about higher production costs for hardware manufacturers, potentially reducing demand and placing additional pressure on industry margins.

Meanwhile, expanding semiconductor manufacturing capacity, particularly in Asia, has revived fears that today’s favorable supply conditions could eventually shift toward oversupply. The chip industry has historically experienced pronounced boom-and-bust cycles, and investors remain cautious that another expansion phase could ultimately pressure pricing and profitability.

While Intel’s long-term turnaround strategy continues to advance, the stock’s recent decline demonstrates that improving execution alone may not be enough to offset broader sector risks. Until confidence returns to semiconductor valuations and the industry outlook, INTC may remain vulnerable to further volatility despite its improving operational performance.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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