EUR/USD Grinding Northward – Buy Pullbacks?

Posted Thursday, August 3, 2017 by
Dave Green • 2 min read

Wednesday’s session marked the first test of the 1.1900 level for the EUR/USD in over two years. Can anything stop the march northward?

The question is interesting, but not overly important. As active traders, our job is to find solid entries and exits while leaving the macro issues to the powers that be. So, let’s break down some of the EUR/USD’s current fundamentals and technicals.


Trending In 2017

The pronounced uptrend for 2017 must be a surprise to many at Barclays and Goldman Sachs. In January, a call of parity by year's end between the Euro and dollar was in vogue.

Now, the popular upside call is 2012’s swing low of 1.2042.


Economic Metrics

Led by the BOE sitting tight on rates and cutting growth forecasts, a full slate of economic metrics were released for the Eurozone overnight. The EUR/USD showed a muted response, trading within a microscopic 39 pip range in the immediate pre-U.S. session.

Conventional wisdom cites any major correction as being a product of fundamentals facing the dollar. We have discussed at length the U.S. Fed’s September meeting being of importance. A dramatic shift in U.S. monetary policy is all that may derail the EUR/USD train.


Can We Trade It?

Tight markets can be a challenge. Hopefully, economic data releases during the U.S. session will create some action.


EUR/USD Daily Retracement PlayEUR/USD Daily Support-Resistance Levels

Here are a few things I will be looking at moving forward:

  • I have always been a fan of big, round numbers. We certainly have one at 1.1900.

  • 38% of the current bullish wave (spike-to-spike) is around 1.1795

  • Wednesday’s session low is 1.1793

  • Trendlines are subjective, but for July we have some support in the 1.1775-95 area  

Bottom Line: No doubt, the EUR/USD is in a plodding uptrend. This scenario lends itself to buying pullbacks, with the daily support of 1.1775-95 being a prime candidate for a long.

Another test of 1.1900 is likely. I don’t like buying tops, as they are prime spots for reversal. The daily support level outlined above is a great place to get in on an intermediate run north, with at least a 2:1 reward ratio.

Of course, the real challenge is getting our price!

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