Equity markets started the week slowly, with the ES falling away in light trade. The calendar is relatively thin this week out of the US but there are some important things to look out for.

Stocks have been holding up well, but if things are going to head south, this could well be the week for it all to happen.

At the moment, the SPX is pushing towards the highs above 2900 and seemingly wanting to take on 3000. While there is a raft of worrying news around, markets keep on shaking this off and making new highs. Is it simply time to stop picking tops and just getting long? Perhaps.

Economic Events

In terms of economic calendar events there is of course the FOMC. At the last meeting, we saw a more dovish tilt than many had been expecting before. So the key jey will be any guidance.

If there is actually talk of a rate cut then that could well lift the markets. Up until recently we had been expecting multiple hikes in 2019. Given conditions are now slowing down there might very well be multiple cuts.

Earnings

There is talk that this earnings season could be one to watch. The suggestion is that the PE of the market overall is too high and due to correct. Some poor earnings results might just pull this into line if the price side of things gives way due to some poor earnings results.

Earnings are, of course, a multi-week event so we will watch with interest.

US-China

With all the reports last week being positive about the progress being made. We will need to watch to see if there is actually anything tangible here to work with.

Again this is a positive for markets, but in reality, we are susceptible to a downside move should the deadlines get pushed out which is a very realistic possibility.