Gold Price Forecast: XAU Holds Above $4,500 as Central Bank Buying Counters FOMC Caution – $4,660 Breakout Next?

Quick overview

Gold (XAU/USD) currently trading around $4,615 an ounce, trying to stage a bit of a comeback after bouncing hard off the $4,510 support line.

Key Drivers For Today

• Central Banks Keep Buying: We saw official sector purchases in Q1 2026 tick up to a net 244 tonnes – that’s a 3% increase on last year, and 17% more than the quarter before that (World Gold Council). And it looks like Poland and Uzbekistan are leading the charge with 31 and 25 tonnes respectively, as more and more emerging market institutions are looking to diversify their reserves to shield themselves against those pesky geopolitical risks.
• Record Demand Figure: Total gold demand – including all the over-the-counter stuff – rose 2% year on year to 1,231 tonnes, racking up a record quarterly value of $193 billion (about 74% up on last year). Now that’s a big deal. And it turns out a lot of that came from a 42% year on year surge in bar and coin investment, with a whole lot of that coming from China and India, where the demand is always strong.
• The Policy Picture: The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold at 3.50–3.75% at their most recent meeting. And as you might expect, Chairman Powell was a bit worried about inflation, citing high energy costs and tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz as causes for concern. And just to put the icing on the cake, we got a bit of a dissenting voice from a couple of the FOMC members – not exactly the most bullish of signs.
• Macro Data Drops Today: We’ve got the advance Q1 GDP estimate, personal income and spending numbers and initial jobless claims coming out today, and that’s giving investors a chance to get a read on how the economy is doing, especially with those high energy prices affecting growth.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical View

Now gold is having a bit of a scrap at that descending trendline near $4,615 – $4,650, which has been putting a lid on the price since mid April. And even though we’re seeing a bit of a bounce from $4,510 support, the price is still below both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, so we still need to keep an eye on how that plays out.

$4,650 – $4,660 is acting as immediate resistance at the moment (previously support, now resistance – makes sense really). And RSI has recovered from those oversold conditions, but it’s still only around 48, which isn’t exactly screaming “bullish momentum”.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $4,650 → $4,660 → $4,740
• Support: $4,510 → $4,431

Trade Idea: Sell if we break below $4,650, targeting a move back down to $4,510. Stop loss would be around $4,700.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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