Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Tests $4,570 Support; FOMC Caution & Hormuz Risks Weigh

Quick overview

As of the 30th of April 2026, morning trading in the spot gold (XAU/USD) market is looking a bit grim, hovering around $4,571-$4,635 per ounce – in fact it slipped right into a pretty key demand zone and thats only after breaking below that critical $4,660 support level.

Key Players Today

• Central Banks – Still in the Game : As of the first quarter of 2026, official sector gold purchases were still going pretty strong. On top of that, total gold demand (OTC included) was actually up 2% year-over-year to a mighty 1231 tonnes and that came in at a record quarterly value of no less than $193 billion – that’s 74% growth from this time last year.
• The Investment Crowd is Moving in : Bar and coin demand saw a 42% leap to 474 tonnes – not bad at all, that’s the second highest quarterly total on record – And guess who’s driving the demand? Asian buyers are snapping up gold in China and India as fast as they can, all in the name of seeking some safe-haven protection.
• The Other Sides of the Business : Gold-backed ETFs did see some inflows – a healthy 62 tonnes worth. Though US funds were bleeding out a bit in March. And as for jewellery? well lets just say it was a bit of a contraction – 23% to be exact, due to some rather high prices.
• Policy & Geopolitics – this is what’s really putting the squeeze on Gold : The Federal Reserve, you know them, they kept interest rates right where they were 3.50-3.75%. So the big news from these meetings was something that’s been going on for a bit now and that’s that inflation risks are going to be a major worry for a while yet – largely because of energy cost hikes that are tied to these tensions in the middle east and the straits of Hormuz for example. And just to add some extra fuel to the fire, some emerging market central banks like Poland and Uzbekistan are really starting to diversify out of traditional reserves.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis

Gold did a sharp nosedive below that trend line resistance and also broke below that pretty key $4,660 support zone. On the 2H chart the red moving average has now crossed below the blue one, and both are pointing down so it’s plain to see that sellers are firmly in charge

Price is now testing that $4,571-$4,635 demand zone. If that fails to hold then we could see $4,513 and $4,431 exposed as the next lines of defence. The RSI is in the 38-60 range and is trying to get back on its feet but momentum is still pretty weak.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $4,660-$4,700
• Support: $4,571-$4,513-$4,431

Trade Idea : Sell if price drops below $4,571 and lets say target $4,513, and we’ll set a stop-loss just above $4,660.

Gold’s long term picture still has a bit of a safety net – you know, the kind for when central banks are buying up gold and other investors are getting nervous, but it’s for sure not going to be easy going for the time being because of the Fed’s signals, the oil prices and all this other Geopolitical stuff that’s getting thrown into the mix.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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