WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Holds Bullish Channel: $105 Breakout or Pullback to $97?
By 29th April 2026 (morning trading and all that) WTI Crude Oil - or to be more specific, USOIL - is trading around $101-$103 per barrel.
Quick overview
- As of April 29, 2026, WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading between $101-$103 per barrel, maintaining an upward trend within a bullish channel.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are impacting oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently blocked, affecting 20% of global oil supply.
- US oil stockpiles have increased by 1.9 million barrels, reaching 465.7 million barrels, while domestic production remains high but is expected to slow down later this year.
- The UAE's exit from OPEC on May 1 aims to allow greater production freedom, although the immediate market focus remains on the geopolitical situation affecting oil supply.
By 29th April 2026 (morning trading and all that) WTI Crude Oil – or to be more specific, USOIL – is trading around $101-$103 per barrel. Despite erratic ups and downs, it’s still holding its own, bouncing along in an upward trend which manages to stay within a fairly clear bullish channel.
Key Drivers For Today
- Its All About Politics at the Moment: The US and Iran still haven’t sorted out their differences so the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively blocked. That’s shutting down about 20% of the world’s oil flow and has seen sustained shutdowns of oil production across the Gulf. Understandably, the Persian Gulf producers have cut their output by about 6%.
- US Oil Stockpiles : US commercial crude stockpiles shot up by 1.9 million barrels last week (up to the 17th April) – to reach a pretty substantial 465.7 million barrels. That’s about 3% above the five year average. Meanwhile, US domestic oil production has been chugging along at record levels, about 13.5-13.6 million barrels per day – but the EIA is saying it will follow the trend of a bit of a slowdown later in the year.
- What’s Going on with OPEC?: The UAE decided it’s had enough and is leaving OPEC from the 1st May. This is because they want to be able to pump as much oil as they want whenever they want, rather than being tied to OPECs rules. This might make for a bit of a mess, but for now its impact is being slightly overshadowed by the bigger issue of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked.
- The Physical Side of Things: So long as the Strait of Hormuz is shut down, the world will have to keep finding alternative routes for its oil to get to where it needs to go. Analysts think this means that physical supplies of oil are getting a bit tight and selling is being driven by a desire for increased energy security rather than a surplus of supply – which has kept prices steady.
In the end you get a picture of a market that’s very much being run by geopolitics and a very tight supply of oil – just to offset it all there’s a fairly decent level of oil stockpiles in the US.
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Technical Analysis.
WTI is looking pretty healthy in a chart – price is happily climbing along in an upward trend, its path is defined by a fairly clear ascending channel and currently looks pretty healthy. Price is sitting on the resistance level between $102.70-$103.00 which suggests there’s still a lot of buyers in the mix – although this level is now looking quite a big hurdle.
The price is sitting well above its 50 and 200 moving averages, with the 50 moving average acting as a bit of a line of support at around $97-98. Which all shows that this trend is still looking pretty strong. However, the RSI is looking a bit overbought at the moment, that might actually suggest a bit of a consolidation is on the way before the next bit of the trend.
Key Price Levels:
- Resistance: $103.50 → $105.50
- Support: $101.30 → $97.60
Trade Idea: Buy USOIL if you can get it above $103.50 and target $105.50 – stop loss would be just below $101.30.
You know, USOIL is extremely sensitive to any fresh news relating to US Iran or any changes in shipping at the Hormuz so just keep an eye out for anything that might break up this nice recovery.
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