The RBA is in Focus

Markets Lower as RBA Remains in Focus

Posted Monday, September 2, 2019 by
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read

Markets were quiet to get the week underway, as the US and Canada were both off for their Labor Day long weekend.

European markets were also quiet, but there were more Brexit headlines that weighted down the GBP/USD. Again it simply added some more uncertainty to the Brexit date, which markets took as yet another negative.

Elsewhere, ES Futures are slightly down while Gold is hovering around the $1525-7 level and is not seeing much action. BTC has reclaimed the important $10,000 level,, but if it fails here that will be seen as a big negative.


Asian Market Outlook

The real action today is in Asia and the AUD/USD will be at the very front of it. First up today, we get retail sales data. This is an important data point, because we should see a sharp uptick here.

The reason being, that the Government recently gave out a tax break. Generally, they like to see that money spent to stimulate the economy, and that should hopefully be captured in the retail sales data. If it isn’t that means that people have been saving it up for a rainy day, which is possibly a poor indicator of the state of the economy.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, we have the RBA. The RBA looks set to keep rates on hold this month after having already slashed the OCR to 1.0% this year. However, we are all expecting a dovish outlook.

There is a second important number this week, in GDP. If we see a weak GDP print, that will really increase the odds of another cut. Many believe the next cut will be around November. Again, nothing is expected today, but the outlook will be vital.

The AUD/USD is already trading at lows and looks like it wants to take out the 0.6700 level, so there is certainly some downside risk today.

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