Weekly Outlook, Jul 12- 16 , 2021: Top Economic Events to Watch This Week - Forex News by FX Leaders

Weekly Outlook, Jul 12- 16 , 2021: Top Economic Events to Watch This Week

Posted Monday, July 12, 2021 by
Arslan Butt • 4 min read

The broad-based US dollar has managed to hang onto its previous bullish bias, and it should end this week on a bullish track, as market investors prefer the safe-haven assets when a risk-off market sentiment prevails. The greenback has been gaining support from the long-lasting concerns over the ever-increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases, which continue to raise doubts about global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, thereby supporting the safe-haven currencies, such as the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the American currency against a basket of other currencies, rose by 0.05% to 92.453, according to figures released at 11:47 PM ET (3:47 AM GMT).

Looking ahead into the coming week, the series of CPI and Unemployment Claims, along with the minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting and the BOC Press Conference could drive plenty of headlines to keep the markets on the move. Besides this, all eyes will also be on the long-lasting geopolitical tensions and the coronavirus headlines, as they could play a key role in determining risk levels in the market.

 

Top Economic Events to Watch This Week

1 – Consumer Price Index (MoM) – Tuesday – 13:30 GMT

The Consumer Price Index data is typically released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It aims to measure price movements by comparing the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of the US Dollar is determined by inflation. Thus, the CPI is a leading indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Put simply, an upward reading is seen as positive for the US currency, conversely, a lower reading is viewed as bearish.

Previous Release:

ACTUAL: 0.6 %

DEV: 0.86

CONS: 0.4 %

DATE: Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:30

 

ii) – Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) – This data is issued by the US Department of Labor Statistics. It provides a measure of price movements by comparison of the retail prices of a range of goods and services. In the interest of capturing an accurate measure, volatile products, such as food and energy, are excluded. Put simply, if the reading comes in higher, it is seen as positive for the US currency, conversely, a lower reading is viewed as bearish for the greenback.

Previous Release:

ACTUAL: 0.7 %

DEV: 1.08

CONS: 0.4 %

DATE: Thu Jun 10, 2021, 12:30

2 – Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report – Wednesday – 15:00 GMT

The Bank of Canada implements a study of economic changes in the Canadian economy. This policy report hints at what a new fiscal policy could look like. Any fluctuation in this report tends to impact the Canadian currency. If the Bank of Canada has a hawkish view, it is seen as bullish for the Canadian currency, while a dovish view is seen as negative for the Canadian dollar.

ii) BoC Rate Statement – This statement is the principal medium used by the Bank of Canada (BoC), to interact with investors regarding monetary policy decisions, specifically those regarding interest rates. This statement contains the results of their decision on interest rates and a commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

3 – BoC Press Conference – Wednesday – 16:00 GMT

This press conference is held by the Governor and the Senior Deputy Governor of the BoC, after the release of the BoC Monetary Policy Report. The press conference is made up of two parts. First, the prepared statement is read, then the conference is opened to press questions. The questions normally lead to unscripted answers that result in heavy market volatility. This press conference takes the form of an audio webcast on the BoC website.

4 – Aussie Employment Change – Thursday – 0:30 GMT

Aussie Employment Change – The Aussie employment change data is typically issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It aims to measure the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Put simply, a rise in this indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which tends to boost Australia’s economic growth, therefore, upward readings are seen as bullish for the AUD, and conversely, a downward reading is viewed as negative (or bearish) for the AUD.

Previous Release:

ACTUAL: 115.2k

DEV: 2.34

CONS: 30 K

Date: Thu Jun 17, 2021, 01:30

ii) Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate is normally released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It measures the number of unemployed workers, divided by the total civilian labor force. Thereby, if the reading goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. A rise, in turn, leads to the weakening of the Aussie economy. Therefore, if the figure goes down, it is seen as bullish for the AUD, whereas an increase is seen as bearish.

Previous Release:

ACTUAL: 5.1 %

DEV: -2.50

CONS: 5.5 %

Date: Thu Jun 17, 2021, 01:30

 

5 – US Unemployment Claims – Thursday – 13:30 GMT

This data is published by the US Department of Labor. It provides a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. A high number shows weakness in this US labor market, which in turn, leaves a bearish impact on the strength of the US economy. On the other hand, a downward reading is seen as positive or bullish for the greenback.

Previous Release:

ACTUAL: 373k

DEV: 0.79

CONS: 350k

Date: Thu Jun 17, 2021, 01:30

6 – BOJ Monetary Policy Statement – Tuesday – Tentative:

This statement is published by the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan. By communicating the committee’s voting results on interest rates and other policy measures, as well as the economic conditions influencing their decision, the statement provides many hints about future changes in monetary policy. A hawkish view is viewed as bullish for the JPY and a dovish outlook is viewed as negative, or bearish for the JPY.

ii)  BoJ Interest Rate Decision: 

This decision is normally announced by the Bank of Japan. If the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the Japanese economy and raises the interest rates, it is seen as bullish for the JPY. Conversely, if the BoJ is dovish about the inflationary outlook of the Japanese economy, and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or if it cuts the interest rate, it is understood as bearish for the Japanese currency.

Previous Release:

ACTUAL: -0.1 %

DEV: 0.00

CONS: -0.1 %

Fri Jun 18, 2021 03:00

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