How high will natural gas go on the momentum of its 11.81% price spike?

Natural gas is up to 1.796 and climbing. On Tuesday, analysts predicted a turnaround for the commodity, and Wednesday’s surge has proved them right. Natural gas prices have mostly been trending down since early in January. The question now is whether that will continue and this price spike is a short detour or if we will see a major change for the market from here.

The price shot up just as Tuesday was drawing to a close, and the upward trend has continued from there. It is too early to call this a bullish trend, but it has distinctly reversed the decline of natural gas prices that have been occurring for several days now.

The long downed trend begun near the start of the year finally reached a stable level on Monday. The 1.6 price point at that time held mostly flat until the upswing on Wednesday. With an increase of more than 10%, this could be significant for natural gas and could lead to a long-tail bull trend.

Today’s news for natural gas marks one of the largest gains in recent memory.

Factors to Watch

Tensions are rising in the Red Sea as the UK’s navy reports a potential explosion that could indicate a Houthi attack.

Gas stores are being restocked in the Eurozone in anticipation of the heating season. As winter comes to a close there, gas stores will need to be replenished.

Chesapeake is reducing its gas production, as the company has had a tough time making profits and expects to do less business in 2024.

The US dollar is having difficulty holding its own against the Euro and may be weakening on mixed economic reports from the last couple weeks.

Our Forecast

We expect the natural gas price to keep moving higher in the short term, but this upswing is not likely to be maintained for long. The commodity should be able to hit 1.80, but after that, it may drop back down to the 1.60 level unless economic factors change in its favor.

Analysts expected a drop to 1.52 unless there was price correction. Now that we have seen that, 1.60 may be the new support level for natural gas.