Gold Price Outlook: Fed Rate Cut Hopes Clash with Weak China Demand at $2,515 Level
Gold prices (XAU/USD) kicked off the week with a slight decline, trading around $2,510 and hitting a session low of $2,508.78.
Arslan Butt•Monday, August 26, 2024•2 min read
Gold prices (XAU/USD) kicked off the week with a slight decline, trading around $2,510 and hitting a session low of $2,508.78.
The dip is largely due to a mix of factors including a risk-on sentiment in global markets and weaker demand from China, the world’s largest gold producer and consumer.
Despite these pressures, expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions might help cushion gold from steeper losses.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations: A Lifeline for Gold?
In the U.S., speculation is growing that the Federal Reserve might start lowering interest rates as early as September. Fed
Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at the need for policy adjustments, suggesting that a rate cut could be on the horizon.
The minutes from the July FOMC meeting reveal that most Fed officials support a rate cut next month, provided there are no unexpected economic shocks.
Additionally, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has voiced his support for two to three rate cuts in 2024, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that current monetary policy is restrictive, with a focus now shifting towards employment goals.
Despite these dovish signals, gold remains under pressure due to risk-on sentiment. However, upcoming economic data could shift this trend, particularly if it indicates economic weaknesses.
Geopolitical Tensions and Their Influence on Gold Prices
On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East have escalated. Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at Israel from southern Lebanon, prompting Israel to carry out airstrikes in response.
These developments typically increase safe-haven demand for gold, but the current market suggests that economic factors are having a stronger influence on prices at the moment.
Gold Price Forecast: Cautious Sentiment Prevails
Currently, gold is trading at $2,510.35, down 0.12% for the day. The metal is hovering near the pivot point of $2,515.43, which has been a key resistance level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 56, indicating a balanced market with no strong buying or selling pressure. The 50-day EMA at $2,491.19 is acting as a solid support level.
However, unless gold breaks through the $2,515.43 resistance, upward momentum may remain limited. On the downside, immediate support is at $2,494.37, with additional levels at $2,479.52 and $2,463.26.
If gold falls below $2,494.37, it could trigger a sell-off targeting lower support zones.
Conclusion: Given the cautious market sentiment, traders might consider selling below $2,515, targeting $2,490, with a stop-loss at $2,531 to manage risk.
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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