Toncoin Navigates Volatile Waters: Open Interest Spikes 33% Following Telegram-xAI Partnership Confusion
Technical indicators flash mixed signals as Toncoin (TON) holds steady at $3.30 amid partnership uncertainty and leverage buildup concerns
Quick overview
- Toncoin (TON) experienced significant volatility due to conflicting claims about a partnership with Elon Musk's xAI firm, initially surging over 20% before reversing course.
- Despite the uncertainty, TON has maintained a price around $3.30, reflecting a 12% increase from pre-announcement levels, and has broken out from a declining triangle formation.
- On-chain analytics indicate a 33% rise in Toncoin's Open Interest, raising concerns of potential corrections, as historical patterns suggest such surges often precede price declines.
- Technical analysis shows mixed signals for TON, with bullish indicators like a golden cross formation, but also warning signs of waning momentum and overbought conditions.
Following contradicting claims regarding a possible relationship between Telegram and Elon Musk’s xAI firm, Toncoin (TON) has shown notable volatility over the previous 24 hours. With allegations of a $300 million deal to include Grok AI into Telegram’s platform, the first announcement by Telegram CEO Pavel Durov brought TON roaring over 20%. But when Elon Musk declared “No deal has been signed,” the movement swiftly turned around when he denied any official agreement. Later, Durov said the deal was merely “in principle,” so adding to market uncertainty.
TON has maintained its position around $3.30 in spite of the uncertainty; it represents a 12% increase from pre-announcement values. Suggesting underlying positive momentum despite the partnership uncertainty, the token broke out from a declining triangle formation that had earlier limited its price action.
Toncoin Open Interest Surge Raises Red Flags
Complicating TON’s present circumstances, on-chain analytics company Glassnode notes that Toncoin’s Open Interest has jumped substantially from $143 million to $190 million over the previous 24 hours at 33% increase. Since February, this is the highest level and points to a notable increase of market leverage.
Such fast rise in Open Interest historically preceded significant TON corrections. Late March/early April saw the last such surge; a 32% price decline followed. Glassnode comments, “past spikes like this have often preceded corrections – worth closely.”
The alarming feature of this Open Interest rise is that it kept rising even as TON’s price retreated from its first surge highs, implying traders are doubling down on bets despite uncertainty.
TON/USD Technical Analysis Shows Mixed Signals
Technically, TON shows a complicated picture with both bullish and bearish signals at action. The encouraging developments include a golden cross formation on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), where the 12 EMA crossed above the 26 EMA on the daily chart. The Awesome Oscillator also exhibits positive momentum, and TON is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud with a buy signal flashing on the Supertrend indicator.
Still, warning indications are starting to show themselves. The asset was quite overbought and momentum is now waning since the Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaked at 81.55 before declining to 69.47. The Ichimoku analysis shows the gap between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen is shrinking, suggesting the uptrend may be losing speed.
Important resistance levels to monitor are $3.67 and $4.10; vital support falls at $2.95. A fall below this support level might set off a more thorough correction toward $2.79.
Toncoin Price Prediction and Risk Assessment
TON finds a turning point ahead. Should partnership clarity develop and the present support at $2.95 hold, the token might approach the $4.10 resistance level, so offering around 24% upside from current levels. A middle objective is the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $3.87.
Still, some risk concerns point to some reason for caution. While the partnership uncertainty still influences attitude, the 33% Open Interest surge historically suggests increased correction risk. More general market conditions also show Bitcoin declining from recent highs, which usually affects the performance of other currencies.
Though this runs counter to present technical optimistic indications, CoinCodex’s algorithmic research points to a possible 31% fall to $2.29 by June 6. The reality probably falls somewhere between these extremes; TON’s near-term performance is mostly contingent on cooperation and more general crypto market mood.
Traders should use care considering the contradictory technical indications, increased leverage issues, and basic unpredictability. Although the golden cross and breakout pattern point to possible upside, historical record of Open Interest surges and partnership uncertainty causes major downside hazards. A smart strategy would be to keep a careful eye on the $2.95 support level and search for clear news on the Telegram-xAI cooperation status.
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