Crude Oil Prices Rebound Toward $100 on Hormuz Risks as Geopolitical Uncertainty Lingers

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WTI Crude Oil opened higher as renewed Middle East tensions and risks to the Strait of Hormuz reignited supply concerns.

Oil Prices Rise Again as Geopolitical Risks Linger

Oil markets began the week with renewed strength after last week’s optimism faded. Prices had previously dropped into the low $80s amid easing tensions, with WTI closing near $83.70.

That decline proved short-lived. As geopolitical risks resurfaced, oil reversed course sharply, with prices climbing back toward the $100 level. The rebound highlights how quickly sentiment can shift in energy markets when supply concerns return.

Strait of Hormuz Back in Focus

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route, has once again become the center of market attention.

Earlier signs of de-escalation had eased fears, as Iran indicated the route would remain open
Recent developments have reversed that view, with tighter control over the waterway
Concerns over supply disruptions and shipping risks have intensified

Any disruption in this region can significantly impact global oil flows, making it a key driver of price volatility.

Rising Tensions Weigh on Market Stability

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated again over the weekend, contributing to the latest move higher in oil prices. Ongoing conflict involving Israel and Lebanon, along with strained relations between the United States and Iran, continues to create uncertainty.

Comments from Donald Trump suggested openness to negotiations, but the lack of concrete progress has kept markets cautious.

• Iran has proposed a phased negotiation framework
• Initial stage focuses on ceasefire agreements
• Later stages include Hormuz management and nuclear discussions

While these proposals hint at a potential path toward de-escalation, the situation remains fluid.

Key Economic Data in Focus This Week

• Thursday and Friday April 28-29: Its the FOMC meeting and Powell press conference – markets will be looking for any clues on rates (currently sitting at 3.50-3.75%), how they see inflation and oil shocks playing out, and who might be likely to take over at the Fed.
• April 30th: Q1 GDP (preliminary), PCE Deflator and personal income/spending – this is going to give us a good idea of how inflation and growth are looking.
• Early May: April CPI and PPI releases – this is going to be key for seeing if the war is having the impact on inflation that we’re expecting.

Oil Rally Reverses Sharply

Despite opening the week with strong gains, oil prices quickly lost momentum. WTI crude surged to around $117 in early April but failed to hold those levels.

WTI Chart Daily – Will the 20 SMA Hold as Resistance?

As the month progressed, prices reversed sharply, falling back toward $80 on Friday. This wide price swing highlights how sensitive oil markets remain to geopolitical headlines and shifting expectations. We saw a jump today, but the 50 daily SMA is capping the move, acting as technical resistance.

Outlook: Volatility Likely to Persist

Oil markets are once again being driven primarily by geopolitical developments rather than fundamentals. The renewed focus on supply risks has pushed prices higher, but uncertainty remains elevated.

As long as tensions in the Middle East persist and the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear, oil prices are likely to stay volatile, with sharp moves driven by headlines and diplomatic developments.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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