Quick overview

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After U.S. President Donald Trump warned about the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged across Asian markets before reversing course later in the session.

Brent Crude prices initially jumped above $125 per barrel on Thursday, reaching their highest level since the start of the Middle East conflict and marking a four-year peak. However, momentum faded midway through trading, with crude eventually turning negative.

At the height of the rally, Brent futures for June 2026 delivery climbed as much as 7% to an intraday high of $126.41 per barrel—the strongest level since May 2022. As Asian trading progressed, gains moderated to below 4%, with prices hovering near $122 per barrel.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate futures for June delivery rose to as high as $110.93 per barrel, up from the previous close of $106.88.

Trump’s Warning Fuels Energy Market Fears

The latest spike reinforced expectations that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may take significantly longer than previously anticipated.

The strategic waterway—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments typically pass—has remained effectively paralyzed since late February.

According to a senior White House official, Trump told oil industry executives that Washington’s naval pressure campaign against Iranian ports could continue “for several months.”

“The blockade is even more effective than the bombings. They’re being suffocated,” Trump reportedly told Axios, further escalating tensions.

The U.S. president also signaled that naval operations would continue until Iran agrees to broader negotiations surrounding its nuclear program.

Markets Fear Prolonged Supply Disruptions

Analysts warned that geopolitical conditions continue to deteriorate, increasing the risk of a deeper and longer-lasting energy shock.

“The geopolitical backdrop shows no signs of easing. Storage capacity in the Gulf is saturated, exports remain constrained, and the risk is no longer limited to temporary supply losses—it now extends to lasting production declines,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management, according to AFP.

Strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey from ING Group also noted that the collapse of U.S.-Iran negotiations, combined with reports that Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, is eroding market expectations for a quick normalization of oil flows.