Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Finds Support after US Crypto Bill Progress and SpaceX Holdings Disclosure
Bitcoin saw severe volatility as ETF withdrawals, significant liquidations, and uncertainty surrounding a planned US government bitcoin reserve structure eclipsed regulatory advancements in Washington and new SpaceX announcements.
Quick overview
- Bitcoin's price experienced significant volatility, initially rising above $80,000 before dropping below $76,000 due to ETF outflows and regulatory uncertainties.
- The American Reserve Modernization Act was introduced, proposing a 20-year lock on government-held bitcoin, which could limit immediate bullish demand despite reducing long-term sell pressure.
- Institutional demand weakened as bitcoin ETFs faced $105.19 million in net outflows, marking a sustained pullback since their launch earlier this year.
- SpaceX revealed it holds 18,712 BTC, highlighting ongoing corporate interest in bitcoin despite market turbulence.
Live BTC/USD Chart
Bitcoin saw severe volatility as ETF withdrawals, significant liquidations, and uncertainty surrounding a planned US government bitcoin reserve structure eclipsed regulatory advancements in Washington and new SpaceX announcements.
Bitcoin Rally Quickly Reverses
Bitcoin initially surged back above the $80,000 level after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the Clarity Act, a major legislative proposal designed to establish clearer rules for digital assets in the United States. The move was viewed as one of the most important regulatory developments for the cryptocurrency industry in years and briefly boosted optimism surrounding institutional adoption.
However, the rally quickly lost momentum. Bitcoin later fell below $76,000 as traders reacted to mounting selling pressure, large ETF outflows, and new legislation involving long-term government-held BTC reserves.
The sharp reversal highlighted how fragile market sentiment remains despite improving political support for the broader cryptocurrency industry.
US Government Reserve Bill Draws Attention
Representatives Nick Begich and Jared Golden introduced the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA), a proposal requiring any government-held bitcoin to remain locked in reserve for at least twenty years.
Under the legislation, the US government would be prohibited from selling, swapping, or disposing of BTC holdings during that period. After the twenty-year lockup expires, the Treasury would only be permitted to sell up to 10% of holdings within any two-year period.
Unlike the earlier BITCOIN Act proposal, ARMA removes the ambitious target of purchasing one million BTC. Instead, the bill directs Treasury and Commerce officials to study budget-neutral acquisition strategies, including converting seized crypto assets, tariff revenues, forfeiture proceeds, and gold certificate revaluations into reserve assets.
The proposal also introduces mandatory quarterly proof-of-reserve reporting and independent audits. According to Arkham Intelligence, current US government cryptocurrency holdings are estimated at roughly $26 billion across bitcoin, ether, and stablecoins.
While the legislation removes potential long-term sell pressure from seized government assets, traders noted that the lack of a direct purchase mandate limits immediate bullish demand implications.
ETF Outflows Continue Weighing on Sentiment
Institutional demand also showed further signs of weakening. On May 22, bitcoin ETFs recorded another $105.19 million in net outflows, extending a six-day streak totaling approximately $1.55 billion.
BlackRock’s IBIT led the declines with $68.89 million in outflows, while Fidelity Investments’s FBTC saw another $36.29 million exit. Total net assets across spot bitcoin ETFs fell to $98.87 billion, dropping below the $100 billion threshold for the first time since April.
The persistent outflows marked one of the most sustained institutional pullbacks since US spot bitcoin ETFs launched earlier this year.
Liquidations and Derivatives Pressure Intensify
Market volatility intensified further in derivatives trading. Over a 24-hour period, bullish traders absorbed more than $352 million in liquidations compared to roughly $24 million for short positions.
The imbalance suggested that leveraged long positions continued getting aggressively unwound as every attempted rebound into resistance levels was quickly sold. Trading volume rose nearly 17% to $65.45 billion, while options activity also increased as investors sought additional downside protection through hedging strategies.
SpaceX Reveals Massive Bitcoin Holdings
Adding another major headline to the market, SpaceX disclosed in a recent filing that the company currently holds 18,712 BTC.
The company reportedly accumulated the bitcoin at an average purchase price near $35,324 per coin, representing an initial investment of approximately $661 million. As of March 31, 2026, the fair value of those holdings had climbed to roughly $1.293 billion, representing an unrealized gain of nearly 119%.
The disclosure reinforced continued corporate interest in bitcoin despite recent market turbulence and ongoing volatility across digital assets.
Technical Structure Defines the Next Inflection Point
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price behavior early in 2026 shows that it is resuming the uptrend following a period retreat in late 2025, which sent Bitcoin decisively below the 100-week moving average for the first time since 2023 and signaling that the market had entered a corrective phase. The decline ultimately stabilized near the 200-week moving average around $60,000, reinforcing the importance of that level as long-term structural support.
BTC/USD Chart Weekly – The 100 SMA Rejected the Price
In the following weeks the price has rebounded, so the broader bullish trend remains technically intact, howebver the 100 weekly SMA rejected the price in May and BTC has reversed lower again. A sustained break below it could open the door to deeper downside toward the psychologically important $50,000 region. Conversely, the ability to push above the $80,000 zone increases the probability of a gradual recovery toward $100,000 and, over time, the $120,000–$126,000 region.
Regulatory Momentum Continues
Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to advance the Clarity Act, signaling growing bipartisan momentum toward formal crypto regulation in Washington. The legislation has received support from several major industry players, including Coinbase, Circle, and Ripple.
Supporters argue the framework could reduce years of regulatory uncertainty that have slowed broader institutional adoption. Critics, however, continue raising concerns surrounding illicit financial activity, banking system risks, and potential instability tied to expanding cryptocurrency markets.
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