Quick overview

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Silver surged after breaking above $80 per ounce for the first time amid a historic rally driven by speculative trading and a persistent mismatch between supply and demand. Copper jumped over 6% to reach a record on the London Metal Exchange, while gold declined after hitting a new high in the previous session.

Increased central bank purchases, inflows into exchange-traded funds, and three consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have made precious metals hot in recent months.

The value of China’s only pure-play silver fund dropped by its daily maximum of 10%, ending a wild bull run that led the fund’s manager to issue rare warnings. The sudden decline in the UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF follows weeks of gains driven by increasing global interest in precious metals, which the manager called “unsustainable.” Spot silver is on track for its best annual performance since 1979 after reaching a record high of $72.70 per ounce on Wednesday.

UBS SDIC Fund Management Co. announced new restrictions after three consecutive days this week of exceeding the 10% upward limit. Starting in December, there will be a cap on new Class C share subscriptions, typically the best option for short-term investors, decreasing from 500 yuan to 26-100 yuan ($14.25), according to a statement on the fund manager’s website. Strong investor interest in precious metals has focused on silver, with a historic short squeeze in October fueling the notable global spot price rally.

Palladium, gold, and platinum have all surged, and other Chinese funds linked to these metals have also seen significant gains, as investors caution. This year, the silver fund has surged by nearly 220%, while Shanghai-traded silver futures have risen about 128%. The premium over the underlying asset jumped from 7% at the start of the month to nearly 62% by Wednesday. As the fund’s value declined and futures rose, this premium is expected to decrease on Thursday.

Commodities that do not pay interest benefit significantly from lower borrowing costs, with traders betting on additional rate reductions in 2026. Physical premiums have hit extreme levels due to relentless industrial demand from solar panels, EVs, AI data centers, and electronics, pushing against dwindling inventories. Elon Musk’s weekend remarks highlighting the growing investor frenzy around precious metals triggered Monday’s early momentum.

“This is not good,” Musk said on X in response to a tweet about Chinese export restrictions.

Many industrial processes rely on silver. The US’s blockade of oil tankers in Venezuela and Washington’s actions against the Islamic State in Nigeria over the past week have increased the appeal of these metals as safe havens. Silver inventories are at their lowest point ever, raising the risk of supply shortages that could impact several industries.