Naspers Share Price Rebound Fades on Prosus Discount Concerns but NPN: JSE Recovery Attempts Continue

Quick overview

Naspers briefly rebounded on improving sentiment around Tencent and corporate governance developments, but the recovery lost momentum as investors remained cautious about valuation discounts and technical resistance.

Naspers Recovery Attempt Runs Into Resistance

Shares of Naspers have experienced significant volatility in recent months, with a deep correction following a strong rally that peaked in late 2025. After recovering toward R940 earlier this week, the stock was unable to sustain its momentum and has since retreated to around R870.

The reversal came as buyers struggled to push the shares above key technical indicators, highlighting the challenges facing the stock despite several positive developments. The recent weakness suggests that investors remain hesitant to aggressively re-enter positions while broader uncertainties persist.

Correction Continues to Shape Market Sentiment

Since reaching highs above R1,030 in October 2025, Naspers shares have declined roughly 30%, entering a prolonged consolidation phase characterized by sharp swings and fading momentum.

A key support zone has emerged around the R840 level, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in to limit further declines. However, recovery attempts have consistently encountered resistance from major moving averages, preventing a sustained breakout.

While the longer-term chart structure still resembles a consolidation pattern rather than a definitive bearish trend, the inability to overcome resistance levels has kept sentiment cautious.

Goldman Sachs Highlights Persistent Discount Concerns

Adding to investor caution, Goldman Sachs recently initiated coverage of both Prosus and Naspers with a neutral rating.

The bank established a price target of €41 for Prosus and ZAR 902 for Naspers, noting that current buyback activity and operational improvements may not be sufficient to significantly reduce the companies’ persistent discount to net asset value over the next year.

A major factor behind the valuation remains Prosus’ substantial stake in Tencent, which accounts for the overwhelming majority of its underlying asset value. Despite the attractiveness of that exposure, investors continue to apply a sizable holding-company discount, limiting upside enthusiasm.

Board Appointment Strengthens Technology Credentials

One positive development has been the appointment of former Google executive Arnold Goldberg as an independent non-executive director at both Naspers and Prosus.

Goldberg brings extensive experience in software engineering, digital infrastructure, and technology leadership, having held senior roles at IBM and Google. His appointment is viewed as strengthening governance and adding valuable expertise as the companies continue expanding their focus on digital platforms and emerging technologies.

Tencent Developments Support Long-Term Outlook

Another supportive factor has been Tencent’s expanding collaboration with Stream on real-time multimodal agent technology. The partnership enhances Tencent’s position in next-generation communications and infrastructure, areas that could become increasingly important as advanced digital applications evolve.

For Naspers investors, Tencent remains the central investment thesis. Through its significant ownership stake, Naspers continues to benefit from Tencent’s technological progress and ecosystem expansion.

Moving Averages Continue to Support the Trend

From a technical perspective, Naspers remains positioned within a well-established uptrend. During the retracement, the share price slipped below the 50-week simple moving average (yellow) and then it slipped below the 100 SMA (green). However the decline has stalled and we saw an attempt at climbing higher in March, popping above R1,000 shortly but couldn’t hold the gains and reversed lower.

NPNJ Chart Weekly – Naspers Found Support at the 200 SMA

The larger trend remains bullish, but the sentiment is bearish mid-term, so there might be further pullbacks. The major support zone comes at around R800 where the 200 weekly SMA (purple) also stands. So, that would be a luring place to go long on Naspers if the share price retreats down there.

NPNJ Chart Monthly – The 50 SMA Is Holding

On the daily chart we have seen may rebounds, but moving averages continue to act as resistance, rejecting the price. The 100 SMA in green was the last one to reject the price on Tuesday.

NPNJ Chart Daily – The 100 SMA Rejected the Price

📊 Fundamentals Remain a Core Stabilising Factor

From a fundamental perspective, Naspers continues to demonstrate resilient growth across its portfolio.

For the first half of fiscal 2026:

• Core headline earnings rose 46% to $3.1 billion
• Revenue increased 20% to $7.2 billion

This performance was driven primarily by its expanding e-commerce and digital platforms, which continue to benefit from scale efficiencies and improving monetisation.

Key contributors include:

• Takealot, which saw solid gross merchandise value growth supported by improved cost discipline
• AutoTrader and Property24, which benefited from rising digital adoption
• Broader efficiency gains driven by AI-enabled tools enhancing engagement and platform performance

These results reinforce the view that underlying business strength remains intact even as equity sentiment weakens.

💼 Capital Allocation and Portfolio Strategy

Naspers continues to actively manage its investment portfolio. The sale of 12 million Remitly shares, raising approximately $191.8 million, reflects a broader strategy of capital recycling—monetising mature positions to fund higher-growth opportunities or shareholder returns.

Such moves highlight a disciplined approach to portfolio optimisation and long-term value creation.

• Revenue: $7.2 billion, with e-commerce revenue up 21% to $7.0 billion.
• Profitability: Adjusted EBIT turned positive to $130 million (from a $154M loss prior year).
• E-commerce Growth: Key units like iFood grew adjusted EBIT by 178%, while classifieds rose 61%.
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): For the half-year ending 09/2025, diluted EPS was US$2.91. For the full-year 2025, EPS was US$31.42.
• Outlook: The group is on track with a three-year plan to double e-commerce revenue and triple adjusted EBIT. 

• E-commerce Surge: The group’s e-commerce segments achieved significant profitability, including eMAG and Takealot in South Africa.
• Financial Health: The company continues to invest in AI-driven startups and holds strong cash reserves ($6.54B in FY23H1, according to older data, though current cash flow is strong).
• Future Focus: Continued investment is targeted at AI, food delivery, and classifieds across Latin America, Europe, and India.

Outlook Remains Mixed

Although recent developments have improved sentiment, Naspers remains caught between positive long-term fundamentals and near-term market skepticism. Board enhancements, Tencent-related growth initiatives, and stable support levels provide reasons for optimism.

However, valuation discounts, technical resistance, and lingering uncertainty over the pace of value realization continue to limit investor conviction. Until the shares can establish a more sustained upward trend, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the stock.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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