Gold Great Escape: Will $5,107 Support Ignite a Massive Rally to $5,442?
Gold is making headlines again. As of February 25, 2026, spot gold has rebounded strongly, jumping about $60 in one session to trade near...
Quick overview
- As of February 25, 2026, spot gold has surged to around $5,197, driven by legal issues and global trade tensions.
- The introduction of a 10% global import tax by the Trump administration has heightened uncertainty, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset.
- Key technical levels indicate that gold must break above $5,257 to target $5,442, while maintaining support above $5,107 is crucial for the bullish trend.
- Traders should remain cautious of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which could impact gold's upward momentum.
Gold is making headlines again. As of February 25, 2026, spot gold has rebounded strongly, jumping about $60 in one session to trade near $5,197.
A mix of legal issues in Washington and rising global trade tensions is pushing gold higher, showing once again why it is seen as a safe-haven asset.
However, with a key resistance level ahead, the question is whether this marks the start of a breakout or a potential bull trap.
The Fundamental “Triple Threat” Driving Prices
Gold’s recent rise is not by chance. Three major factors are encouraging investors to seek safety in gold:
- The 10% Global Tariff Chaos
The main reason for today’s rally is the official introduction of a 10% global import tax by the Trump administration.
After a Supreme Court ruling struck down the original tariff orders, the administration used different legal grounds to bring back the tax.
Rumors of a possible increase to 15% have created uncertainty in global markets, making gold a popular hedge against trade-war risks.
- Radical “Tax Replacement” Speculation
In his 2026 State of the Union address, President Trump proposed using tariff revenue to eventually replace the US income tax system.
This possible change to the US tax system has increased long-term uncertainty about the dollar, which supports demand for assets like gold.
- The Geneva “Nuclear” Risk Premium
Geopolitics are adding high-octane fuel to the fire. Investors are bracing for high-stakes US-Iran nuclear discussions in Geneva, scheduled for tomorrow. With both sides maintaining a hardline stance, the “risk premium” is currently keeping a firm floor under gold prices above the $5,150 mark.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: The Path to $5,442
On the 2-hour chart, gold is showing a steady bullish recovery. Despite recent pullbacks, the trend remains positive, supported by a rising trendline from mid-February lows.
- The Support Floor: A potential “higher low” is forming around $5,107. This level is critical, it aligns with horizontal support and the ascending trendline.
- The Moving Averages: Both the 50-period MA ($5,069) and the 200-period MA ($5,015) are trending upward, acting as dynamic safety nets for the current rally.
- The Resistance Ceiling: To unlock the next leg up, gold must decisively clear the $5,257 zone.
Key Levels to Watch (XAU/USD)
| Level Type | Price | Significance |
| Major Target | $5,442 | The primary objective if $5,257 resistance breaks. |
| Immediate Resistance | $5,208 | Current intraday ceiling; a break here signals strength. |
| Key Pivot | $5,180 | The battleground where bulls are fighting to hold the line. |
| Critical Support | $5,107 | The “Must-Hold” level to keep the bullish structure alive. |
The Verdict: Opportunity Amidst the “Hawkish” Threat
Although technical and fundamental factors are positive, traders should be cautious about the Federal Reserve. Two Fed officials recently indicated a hawkish stance, suggesting no immediate rate cuts.
This could strengthen the US Dollar and limit gold’s gains if inflation stays high.
The Strategy:
Bullish Confirmation: Look for a sustained move above $5,257 with a target of $5,442.
Risk Management: Invalidation of the current bullish setup occurs on a break below $5,069.
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