WTI Oil Near $97: Will the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Push Crude Past $100?

Quick overview

The global energy market is tense as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude approaches the $100 mark. By midday on March 17, 2026, WTI was trading between $95.60 and $97.00, recovering nearly 4 percent in one day. This sharp movement is due to worsening security in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led the International Energy Agency (IEA) to call it the largest supply disruption in modern history.

For traders and analysts, the recent price moves are not just a typical rally. They reflect a significant geopolitical risk premium. Earlier in the week, prices fell below $93 as some tankers tried to pass through, but new strikes from Iran and no agreement on a naval escort have brought buyers back. With about 20 percent of global oil and LNG at risk, the market is now focused on war-related risks instead of usual supply and demand factors.

The “Hormuz Factor” and Global Supply Shocks

The disruption is huge, with Middle Eastern Gulf oil exports dropping by over 60 percent in just one week. This shortage has made major producers like the UAE cut production by more than half, since storage tanks are full and there is no way to ship the oil out. The IEA has released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, but the market doubts this temporary fix can make up for a long-term blockade at such a key oil route.

The current supply crisis is defined by three primary catalysts:

• The rejection by several US allies to commit warships to a maritime coalition, leaving tankers without protection.
• A massive surge in war-risk insurance premiums, making it economically unfeasible for most commercial vessels to enter the Gulf.
• A strategic “diversion to storage” where over 50 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude are now sitting in floating storage rather than reaching refineries.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook: The Road to $110 or a Dip to $90?

Looking at the charts, WTI is forming a higher low on the 4-hour timeframe and has strong support around $93.16. This matches the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally. With prices just below the $98 to $100 resistance area and the RSI at 55, there is still room for a breakout before the market becomes overbought.

Strategic Implications for Energy Traders

Oil’s strength is having mixed effects. It supports the Australian Dollar (AUD) because Australia is a big energy exporter, but it also raises global inflation concerns. This has led central banks like the RBA to raise rates to their highest in 10 months. Traders should watch the EIA inventory report on March 18 and any news about the US-led coalition, as these could drive the next $5 to $10 price move.

Key levels to watch in the coming sessions:

• Bullish Case: A sustained daily close above $98.18 likely clears the path for a rapid test of $103.20, with $110.40 as the secondary target.
• Bearish Case: A failure to hold the $93.16 support floor could see a swift liquidating move back toward the $90.26 psychological base.

Sentiment remains strongly positive, with risk premiums leading the way. Institutional buyers see any major price drops as chances to protect themselves against more trouble in the region.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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