Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Stabilize at $4,675 as Markets Await Pivotal NFP Data

Quick overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is stuck in a tight spot near $4,675 on Friday, April 3, 2026 – a day when global markets are facing a challenging mix of escalating tensions and high-stakes US labour data. While the metal has clawed its way back from Thursday’s lows of $4,558, it’s currently stuck in a kind of limbo thanks to the Good Friday bank holiday which has left trading volumes seriously depleted and volatility curbed.

A Tug of War on the Fundamental Front

The gold market is at a crossroads, with its role as a safe haven being pulled in opposite directions by rising interest rate expectations. On Thursday, President Trump’s televised address – where he warned of an escalation of military operations against Iran over the next few weeks – saw oil prices surge to a new high with WTI Crude jumping above $115. But this would normally have seen gold get a boost – but its move’s being offset by:

• Rising Treasury Yields: the US 10 year yield is holding firm at 4.85% – with investors convinced that the spike in energy prices will keep the Federal Reserve on a restrictive course.
• The Dollar’s Still Going Strong: not even a minor pullback on Thursday could stop the USD Index (DXY) from staying buoyed by safe-haven demand – and currently trading near 99.30
• Gold’s Not Quite the Safe Haven It Used to Be: investors are currently prioritising the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative driven by the energy-inflation shock – which is why gold’s not currently performing as well as a hedge

NFP Takes Centre Stage: March Nonfarm Payrolls

Market participants are on tenterhooks waiting for the March Employment Report due out at 8:30 AM ET this morning. Following February’s surprise contraction of -92,000 jobs, economists are looking for a “snapback” reading.

• Consensus forecast: +60,000 new jobs.
• Unemployment rate: expected to hold steady at 4.4%.
• The sweet spot: a print between 70k and 90k could ease recession fears without scaring the Fed into responding too aggressively – which would allow gold to stabilise.
• The bearish risk: a surprise beat above 100,000 would likely send the Dollar soaring towards 100.50 and force gold to dip below $4,600.

The Technical Picture: a Decision Zone at $4,630

Gold is stuck in a tight spot technically, hovering around the $4,670-$4,680 area – which is the immediate pivot point for our short-term direction.

• Critical support: the confluence of the 0.382 Fibonacci level and a rising trendline from the late-March low is sitting around $4,631. As long as this level holds, the broad bullish structure remains intact.
• Key resistance: on the upside, sellers are holding firm around the $4,720-$4,760 supply zone. A sustained break above this would be needed to challenge the recent swing high of $4,805.
• Momentum Status: the RSI is currently sitting neutral at 52, suggesting that the market is building up momentum for a breakout after the NFP release.

As the holiday has left many European and US markets closed, traders should be careful of limited liquidity – which could lead to exaggerated price swings if the NFP data is way off what everyone’s expecting.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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