EUR/USD Surges Above 1.1650 as Trump’s Two-Week Ceasefire Weakens Dollar Safe-Haven Appeal – 1.1800 Next?

Quick overview

EUR/USD went on a wild ride on April 8 2026, finally breaking through the 1.1650 barrier and trading at around 1.1670 in the early Asian markets. And this wasnt an one off – the pair had a third day in a row of gains wiping out some of the recent consolidation pressure , and its sights were firmly set on breaking past a fresh resistance level with intraday highs getting as high as 1.1684 to 1.1697.

Before all this, EUR/USD had been stuck in a bit of a rut in the 1.1520-1.1600 gang, just trundling along on thin Easter holiday trading and geopolitical uncertainty, before closing on April 7 at around 1.1557-1.1589.

Why is EUR/USD surging above 1.1650 today?

It turns out that a certain Presidents announcement about a deal with Iran made investors think twice about putting their money into the US dollar and that weakened the Dollar Index big time – and as a result, the euro went up.

Ceasefire Announcement Triggers Dollar Weakness and a Big Shift in Risk Sentiment

The main reason for the dollar weakness and investor euphoria is what happened late on April 7 when the president announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran. Basically, the Iranians would agree to let oil tankers pass through the strait of Hormuz (that provides 20% of the worlds oil and gas) and as a result, the US and Israel wont be bombing them for two weeks. This made the market go all ‘oh we dont have to worry about the oil tankers getting blown up after all’ and that meant the US dollar no longer had the same appeal as a ‘safe haven’ – which is what safe haven currency is all about.

In a rush to get out of the dollar and into more risk-friendly assets, the euro benefited from the overall upbeat mood in the market and the falling risk of a major energy disruption.

Analysts were saying that they saw huge potential for the euro to go up – especially in pairs against the yen like EUR/JPY – as the dollar lost its safe haven status and investors ran for the hills. News that talks were moving forward in Pakistan added to the feeling that the deal might not fall over, although of course its all very conditional and will need to be watched closely to make sure it actually happens over the next couple of weeks.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Takes a Big Leap Upwards

Looking at the 2 hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has finally broken through a key resistance line at 1.1639 and passed the 1.618 Fib extension at 1.1703 – and thats a big deal. Its a real turning point for the short term, with the price flying upwards from the 1.1504 base and still respecting the upwards trend line that has been supporting the recovery since the end of March.

EUR/USD is now well above both the 50 day moving average at 1.1570 and the 200 day moving average at 1.1561 – which just reinforces the idea that the momentum is all on the up.

Key EUR/USD Levels to Watch (April 8, 2026)

Momentum indicators are all over the map to confirm this breakout, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) taking off like a rocket to 84 – a clear sign that there’s a ton of upside pressure building up. However, you’ve got to watch out for the overbought warning signs flashing in the near-term which could set off a mini-dip back down to around 1.1639 before we get back on track.

Three Key Factors Traders Should Monitor Closely Today

• Will the tanker flows really start rolling in through the Strait of Hormuz again when the ceasefire window opens up
• Any news on the negotiations, perhaps we get an update from Islamabad.
• Just how much of a impact will any shift in global risk sentiment have on markets – including what happens to oil, equities and the US Dollar Index.

Short-Term Bullish Bias with Caution on Conditional Truce

As it stands right now, the ceasefire news has definitely given the euro a big leg up by taking some of the safe-haven flow out of the dollar and generally making people more receptive to risk. The chart now says go long as long as the price stays above that support level – the one that used to be resistance near 1.1639.

It’s worth noting that while immediate escalation risks have faded a bit, things are still pretty volatile. If this whole truce thing falls apart, or if it takes longer than people expect to get things normalised at the Hormuz Strait, then all those gains could get turned right back around.

Longer term, we’re still looking at a whole bunch of different scenarios for 2026- depending on how the Fed and ECB see things, how well the eurozone economy holds up and just how much this de-escalation thing can stick. Central banks are going to be right back in the spotlight when the FOMC minutes come out – and just like that, geopolitics has taken a back seat.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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