EUR/USD Breaks Channel Support as US-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty Weighs – Bears Eye 1.1645?

Quick overview

EUR/USD is stuck in a narrow range around 1.1750-1.1800 just now , during European trading on April 20, 2026 and isn’t really showing much of an inclination to go in a particular direction after all those wild swings it had recently.

Key Drivers Today

• The Ceasefire Extension: Don’t know whether to be optimistic or not , President Trump just announced an indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire which is definitely helping to ease those immediate escalation fears and you’d think would be supporting some risk-on mood and, at the same time, weighing on USD because it’s a safe haven. However, the extension don’t have alot of conviction to it , because the second round of peace talks kind of stalled (Iran refused to turn up to them unless they lift the naval blockade so add that into the mix and you got a whole other story .
• The Strait of Hormuz Situation: We’re still getting mixed reports about whats happening with the strait and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports – so we got those supply disruption risks for global oil hanging over us like a Sword of Damocles (about 20% of seaborne crude passes through the strait) – and that keeps energy-driven inflation risks alive and kicking so you can just imagine its not really helping USD to get any stronger.
• Eurozone and ECB: The Eurozone is on a downward spiral and that weaker sentiment data and growth concerns is weighing the euro down . The ECB are still waiting to see what happens next and are not looking at raising interest rates anytime soon but , on the other hand , sticky inflation from potential energy shocks is adding another layer of complexity to the mix.

The pair is super sensitive to middle east headlines at the moment rather than any macro data – its a pretty quiet day on the calendar – but if we get a clearer diplomatic breakthrough then the euro might get some support and make some gains – and on the other hand – if things escalate again then USD is likely to get stronger.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has managed to slip decisvely below its ascending channel on the 2H timeframe – which , if you ask me, is a pretty clear sign that it was a bull run and not just consolidating – as now it trades at around 1.1685 firmly below the mid-channel support and the 50-period moving average.

We’ve been getting multiple rejections at 1.1835 so now price is making lower highs and trading below the lower channel boundary and prior demand – so all in all , this breakdown is kinda technically significant.

The immediate focus is on the 1.1670-1.1645 support zone , where that horizontal structure lines up with the lower channel boundary and prior demand – and a clean break below that region could kick off some selling headed towards 1.1607 , and if momentum builds then we could see further downside risk towards 1.1560. The RSI indicator is in oversold territory – which technically supports the bearish sentiment but also makes it a bit more likely that we might get a short-term bounce.

For the bulls to take back control , price needs to get back up to 1.1735 and get back inside the channel – until then , rallies are just going to be a corrective thing.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 1.1735
• Support: 1.1670–> 1.1645–> 1.1607

Trade Idea: Sell on rallies toward 1.1735, target 1.1645 and put a stop loss above 1.1750.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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