Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Surges Toward $78,000 as Strait of Hormuz Relief Rally Fuels Risk-On Sentiment

Quick overview

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in the $77,000–$78,000 region on April 18, 2026, having notched a 2.8–3% gain over the past 24 hours. It briefly touched a fresh multi-week high of $78,000–$78,300 earlier in the day.

The sudden surge appears to be linked to a broad risk-on rally across crypto and equities, driven by calming of tensions in the Middle East. Good news is coming in from Iran after they declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial ships following an earlier threat to close the waterway in response to tensions with the US; this has sent oil prices plummeting (down roughly 10% in some areas) and lifted sentiment for assets like Bitcoin.

Crypto market liquidations totalled around $820–$826 million in the last 24 hours, with the majority coming from short positions getting wiped out – a whopping $350 million+ of that was Bitcoin alone. Meanwhile futures open interest is spiking, indicating that bulls are piling in aggressively.

Key Drivers Right Now

• The Geopolitics Effect: There’s been a reduction in fears of an oil supply shock thanks to the easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz – this has given a boost to risk assets. Bitcoin and related stocks like MicroStrategy and Coinbase have seen particularly strong gains.
• ETF Inflows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a big influx of new money in recent times, including an eye-popping $663.9 million one day recently – this has been driven by the likes of BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, among others. These numbers continue to reflect the growing interest from big institutional investors.
• Bullish Momentum: BTC is now testing a key resistance zone near $77k–$78k, and some analysts are thinking that if the momentum holds then it could break through to $80k+ or even higher. That being said, derivatives data shows that there’s a level of caution among buyers right now, and there are still some big sell orders in place – but short liquidations are adding fuel to the fire.

Other Happenings of Note

• Some of the big public miners (e.g. Bitdeer) are choosing to sell the Bitcoin they’ve mined, and are keeping very little or no holdings at all, given the current price strength.
• The broader crypto market is looking pretty healthy, with Ethereum and others all benefiting from the improved sentiment.
• Longer term: we’re still seeing increasing adoption through ETFs, and many experts think this is going to be a big driver for where BTC goes in 2026.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading near $77,000, and is still in a rising trend after it held above the $65,000–$66,600 zone as support.

Price has now reclaimed its 50-day moving average at $71,700 and is now testing a key resistance band near $76,300–$79,000 that also happens to be a key Fibonacci extension zone. You can see the structure is looking pretty bullish, with higher highs and higher lows.

The Relative Strength Index has been rising towards 67, but it is far from being overbought just yet, which is a good sign for buyers.

Key Levels We’re Watching:

• Resistance: $79,000
• Support: $74,000 → $71,700

Trade Idea: Consider buying in above $79,000 and aiming for $81,000–$83,400 with a stop-loss below $74,000.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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