Will the CLARITY Act Finally Pass in 2026? Senate Delay Sparks Crypto Market Panic
As of April 23, 2026, the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633), a major U.S. crypto market structure...
Quick overview
- The CLARITY Act, a significant U.S. crypto market structure bill, is facing delays in the Senate due to concerns over stablecoin yield regulations.
- Betting markets indicate a declining probability of the bill passing in 2026, with estimates dropping to around 38-50%.
- Lawmakers are under pressure to finalize the bill before midterm elections, with potential delays pushing crypto legislation to 2030.
- If passed, the bill could provide much-needed clarity for the crypto market and position the U.S. as a leader in digital asset innovation.
As of April 23, 2026, the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633), a major U.S. crypto market structure bill that passed the House in July 2025 with strong bipartisan support (294-134), is now facing new obstacles in the Senate.
Key Updates:
Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) has asked Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott to postpone the committee markup until May. The main issue is the rules for stablecoin yields. The draft would ban interest earned just by holding stablecoins, aiming to protect traditional banks from losing deposits, but it would allow limited rewards based on activity, such as loyalty programs or transaction incentives.
Betting markets are showing signs of concern. Polymarket odds for the bill passing in 2026 have dropped sharply to about 38-48% (down around 23% in recent weeks). Galaxy Digital estimates the chances are about 50-50, or possibly lower if the markup is delayed past mid-May.
Why the Tight Timeline Matters
Lawmakers have a tough schedule ahead, with midterm elections in November and other priorities like debates on Iran and funding bills. Senator Bernie Moreno mentioned a possible markup at the end of May, but missing important deadlines could delay crypto legislation ‘for the foreseeable future’ or even push it to 2030, according to Senator Cynthia Lummis. If the markup happens in early May, there is still a small chance for floor action by July.
LATEST: 🇺🇸 TD Cowen sees only a one-in-three chance the CLARITY Act passes this year, flagging CFTC staffing gaps, prediction market politics, and Iran's reported use of crypto payments as key hurdles. https://t.co/RVzn3c3f2o pic.twitter.com/8VAfzNp9dR
— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) April 23, 2026
Background on the Fight
The bill is designed to provide long-awaited clarity by clearly defining SEC and CFTC jurisdiction. Most blockchain-native tokens would be treated as digital commodities, while true securities would remain under SEC oversight. The bill also includes safe harbors for DeFi and rules for stablecoins.
In March 2026, a compromise involving Tillis and Senator Angela Alsobrooks addressed concerns about yields, with input from the White House. Coinbase supported the revised plan in April after raising earlier objections, but the banking industry is still lobbying against it. The final text has not yet been released for the required 48-hour review. Industry groups such as the Digital Chamber are pushing for quick action.
What Happens Next?
Optimists, including Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse (who moved his expectations from April to May), believe there is a small chance if the committee votes in early May. The risks are real: each week of delay makes it harder to complete the remaining steps, which include the committee vote, floor debate, possible House reconciliation, and the president’s signature. Bank opposition to stablecoin yields is still the main point of conflict.
If the bill passes, it would be a major boost for U.S. crypto innovation, ending ‘regulation by enforcement’ and helping America become a global leader in crypto. The situation is still changing, and there is no official markup date yet
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