SpaceX Stock Cools After IPO Surge as AI Hype Meets a $2.4 Trillion Valuation

Quick overview

SpaceX’s first week as a public company has already delivered the full IPO cycle in miniature: scarcity, euphoria, retail momentum, institutional conviction, valuation anxiety and a sharp pullback.

SPCX closed at $185.00 on June 18, down 3.56%, after trading between $172.11 and $190.00. The stock remained far above its $135 IPO price, but below its early high of $225.64, according to the quoted market data.

TradingView lists the IPO deal at $75 billion, with 638.89 million shares offered, and market capitalization near $2.44 trillion. It also shows FY revenue of $18.67 billion and FY net income of -$4.94 billion. That leaves no meaningful P/E ratio and implies a valuation driven more by future market size than current earnings.

The bull case is clear. SpaceX controls a rare bundle of assets: reusable launch, Starship, Dragon, Starlink, defense work and AI infrastructure ambitions. ARK Invest added roughly 3.29 million SPCX shares across several ETFs, making SpaceX one of Cathie Wood’s most aggressive recent public-market bets. ARK’s buying followed sales in names including Tesla, AMD and Teradyne to make room for the position.

But the bear case is just as direct. At about 130 times FY revenue, SPCX is priced for execution across multiple frontier markets at once. Investors are not paying for a conventional aerospace company. They are paying for Starlink scale, AI monetization, orbital infrastructure and a belief that SpaceX can convert capital intensity into durable monopoly-like economics.

SpaceX Technical Analysis: $200 or $150 Next?

The chart is still young, so classic indicators need caution. A newly listed stock does not yet have useful 50-day or 200-day moving averages. A standard 14-day RSI is also immature. MACD signals are less reliable until more daily closes form.

Still, the early structure is readable:

• Immediate resistance: $190, then $200, then the $218-$225 zone.
• Immediate support: $181-$185, then $172, then $160.95.
• Major reference level: $150 opening area and $135 IPO price.
• Trend: powerful post-IPO uptrend, now showing momentum loss.
• Volume signal: early demand was unusually strong, but the pullback suggests profit-taking is replacing scarcity buying.

A close back above $190-$200 would suggest buyers are defending the IPO premium. A break below $172 would point to a deeper reset toward the first-day close near $160.95. A move below that level would put the IPO opening zone near $150 back in play.

SPCX Near-Term Outlook

• Bullish consolidation: SPCX holds $172-$185, volume cools, and the stock builds a base before retesting $200.
• Momentum rebound: buyers reclaim $200, forcing short-term traders back toward the $218-$225 high.
• Valuation reset: the stock loses $172 and drifts toward $160.95 or $150 as IPO demand fades.
• Event-driven volatility: lockup schedules, bond issuance, AI contract news or first earnings guidance drive sharp gaps.

The next fundamental test is liquidity. Business Insider reported that only about 4.3% of shares are publicly tradable, with staggered lockup releases set to expand the float over coming months. That matters. A small float can fuel upside. It can also exaggerate downside once supply increases.

ARK’s buying adds credibility to the long-term growth story, but it also raises the stakes. SpaceX must now prove it is more than a historic IPO. Starlink revenue, launch dominance and AI infrastructure must scale fast enough to justify one of the market’s richest valuations.

For long-term investors, SPCX is a high-conviction compounder candidate with extraordinary optionality. For traders, it is a volatile post-IPO chart with thin history and crowded attention.

The stock’s first battle is no longer access. It is evidence.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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