Slow Iran Deal Progress Keeps S&P 500 Flat; Nasdaq up 0.4%
The stock market is being held back by slow progress in the Middle East negotiations, but chip stocks remain elevated.
Quick overview
- The US stock market showed little change on Monday, with the Dow Jones rising by 48 points and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.4%.
- Investors are closely watching the upcoming inflation data, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which will influence Federal Reserve rate policy decisions.
- Micron Technology saw a significant increase of nearly 6% in premarket trading, continuing its strong performance this year, while SpaceX's stock dropped about 5%.
- Oil prices fell due to the current peace in the Middle East, with Brent crude down 3% to $78 per barrel.
The US stock market showed little change on Monday as Iran and the United States detailed plans for 60 days of slow progress, and the S&P 500 stalled.
The Dow Jones rose by 48 points, adding just 0.1% while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.4%. The change to the S&P 500 was likewise marginal, and it remained mostly flat as investors mulled the slight progress being made in the Middle East. The negotiations over the Iran war were quick, powerful, and market changing last week, but this week, as the countries lay out their 60-day plans, the market is slowing down.
The largest influencing factor this week may be the new inflation data. On Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve will use that information to track inflation and will base rate policy decisions on that data.
SpaceX and Chip Stocks Climb While Oil Futures Dip
The countries of Iran and the United States are supposed to come to a final deal within the next 60 days. That is a lengthy period for them to work out their differences and make decisions about the Strait of Hormuz and hostilities in the region. During that period, we expect that the stock market will be heavily influenced by other factors outside of the Middle East disagreements.
The peace that exists there for now has led to oil prices dropping, and Brent crude fell 3% to $78 per barrel. The West Texas Intermediate benchmark for oil dropped as well, losing 1.89% to $75 a barrel. Because the peace in the Middle East is relatively new, we anticipate that oil prices will continue to drop for now, but the prices should stabilize in the near future so long as the ceasefire remains in place and unbroken.
Chip stocks were some of the very few strongly moving stocks Monday. Micron Technology (MU) gained nearly 6% in premarket trading, continuing last week’s rally. So far in 2026, the stock’s price has jumped about 300%, and investors are watching this one closely to see how it reacts to Wednesday’s quarterly report. As one of the leading tech stocks, Micron’s performance sets the tone for the rest of the sector.
SpaceX (SPCX) faceplanted this week, dropping about 5% and continuing last week’s drop off. The newly launched stock rose so far so quickly that it is no surprise to see it losing some of its support by the second week. The investors who jumped on board early in order to make a quick dollar have started cashing in already. This should not be seen as a lack of market support for the new stock but rather the natural ebb and flow associated with quickly moving stocks.
The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index is going to be the big test for the market this week. Predictions place headline PCE at around 3.6% and core PCE closer to 3.2%. The expectation is that inflation has grown, prolonging last month’s trend and putting economic growth at risk.
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