Will MP Material Stock Fall Below $50 as China Risks Pressure Rare Earth Rally?

Quick overview

MP Materials shares remain under pressure after a June pullback, with bearish 4-hour moving averages and China export-control risks weighing against strong U.S. government support and improving Q1 results.

MP Materials Pulls Back as Rare Earth Optimism Faces China Risk

MP Materials stock has come under renewed pressure as investors weigh two opposing forces: the company’s growing strategic role in the U.S. rare earth supply chain, and the risk that China’s export controls could complicate equipment, materials, and processing access.

MP Stock Slides After June Weakness

MP Materials fell 13.4% in June, with selling pressure accelerating after China placed the company on a list of firms subject to export restrictions.

Although MP Materials does not directly depend on China as a customer in the same way it once did, the risk is more indirect. China dominates rare earth processing, magnet production, and related manufacturing equipment. That means restrictions can still affect suppliers that use Chinese components before selling finished systems or services to MP.

This has cooled investor enthusiasm after a powerful run in rare earth stocks, especially as traders reassess how quickly the company can scale domestic magnet production.

Government Support Remains a Major Bullish Catalyst

Despite the latest pullback, MP Materials remains one of the clearest beneficiaries of Washington’s push to reduce U.S. dependence on China for rare earth magnets.

The company’s partnership with the Department of Defense includes a $400 million investment, a $150 million loan, and support for arranging roughly $1 billion in financing. The DoD also entered a long-term pricing floor agreement and committed to ensuring output from MP’s 10X magnet facility is purchased by defense and commercial customers.

That backing materially strengthens MP’s investment case. It gives the company greater financial visibility, supports the buildout of its Northlake, Texas magnet facility, and positions MP as a national-security asset rather than just another cyclical materials stock.

Apple Deal Adds Commercial Validation

Investor sentiment has also been supported by MP Materials’ long-term supply agreement with Apple.

The deal gives Apple access to domestically sourced rare earth magnets, while giving MP another major commercial anchor customer beyond defense demand. For markets, that matters because it shows the company’s magnet strategy is not limited to government support.

Demand from electric vehicles, smartphones, defense systems, robotics, and data centers continues to support the long-term rare earth story. The challenge is execution: MP must prove it can move from mining and materials production into reliable, scaled magnet manufacturing.

Q1 Results Show Operational Progress

MP’s first-quarter results showed meaningful improvement across several operating metrics.

Revenue reached $90.6 million, up about 49% from the prior year, while consolidated revenue plus price protection agreement income reached roughly $132.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in near $36.6 million.

The Materials segment delivered record quarterly NdPr production and sales volumes, producing 917 metric tons, up 63% year over year, and selling 1,006 metric tons, up 117% year over year. Rare earth oxide production also reached a first-quarter record at 12,983 metric tons.

Meanwhile, the Magnetics segment continued advancing commissioning and qualification work, broke ground on the 10X facility, and received a prepayment from Apple.

MP Technical Analysis: Moving Averages Flash Sell Signals

From a technical perspective, MP’s 4-hour chart remains weak.

The stock is trading below the 10 EMA at $54.88, the 20 EMA at $56.01, and the 50 EMA at $58.32, all of which now act as short-term resistance. The broader averages are also bearish, with the 100 EMA at $59.60 and 200 EMA at $60.12 still above price.

Momentum indicators confirm the cautious setup. The RSI sits at 34.80, close to oversold but not yet showing a clear reversal. The MACD level is negative at -1.47, Momentum is at -2.30, and the Awesome Oscillator remains on a sell signal at -1.71.

The first support area is now near $52, followed by the psychologically important $50 level. A break below $50 could expose MP to a deeper correction toward $47-$48. On the upside, buyers need to reclaim $55-$56 before momentum can improve.

Can MP Stock Hold the $50 Level?

MP Materials remains a strategically important rare earth company with powerful long-term catalysts from defense spending, Apple demand, and U.S. supply-chain reshoring.

However, the stock’s short-term technical picture remains bearish. Until MP climbs back above the $56-$60 resistance zone, sellers may continue testing the $50 level.

For now, the investment story remains strong, but the chart suggests patience. A successful defense of $50 could attract dip buyers, while a clean breakdown would signal that China-related supply-chain fears are still outweighing the bullish government-backed growth narrative.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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