Bitcoin (BTC) Price Holds Near $64K as Fed Rate Hike Fears Weigh on Sentiment

Quick overview

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show mixed performance and is expected to end this week on a bearish track. During the European trading session on Satursday, the BTC is trading at $64,131.52 level, showing 0.16 percent losses.

However, the reason for its mixed performance can be attributed to the higher chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase at the September meeting. At the same time, the previously released US jobs data showed that the US economy is still strong, which gives the Fed more reason to keep interest rates high. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 215,000, lower than the expected 218,000 and the previous 217,000. Therefore, the probiality of higher interest rates  is negative for Bitcoin as they make investors more careful with risky assets. That is why Bitcoin is showing sluggish and mixed performance.

Another news that is impacting BTC is Donald Trump’s latest comments, allowing the resumption of US-Iran talks. This improved market sentiment and gave investors some confidence. Although Trump also said the ceasefire is over, which created some uncertainty in the market and put some pressure on BTC.

Bitcoin Awaits Key US Data

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar erased its earlier losses, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value against six currencies, remained steady at 100.74.

However, the gains in the greenback came after US President Donald Trump said the US has agreed to restart talks with Iran. In the meantime, he also said the ceasefire is over, meaning the situation is still not fully settled and tension is remain on the cards. After his comments, the US 10 year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.569 percent as investors expected energy prices to rise, pushing inflation higher and increasing the chances of interest rates higher for longer.

As a result of this, markets now see an 80 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in the month of September. On the other side, most traders think the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the July 29 meeting, with the chance of a rate hike below 34 percent.

Looking forward, traders are keeping their eyes on next week US inflation report, which is scheduled to be released on 14 July 2026. However, the market expects headline CPI inflation to rise 3.8 percent year over year, while core CPI is expected at 2.8 percent. Afterward, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warshs testimony will be in the spotlight, which is scheduled to take place on July 15. This is important for traders as it will give some more clues about the Fed’s next interest rate decision.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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