US Inflation Data Today: Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Forex, and Dollar Outlook

Quick overview

Investors are keeping their focus on the US economic calendar because a lot of important data is set to be released today. First of all, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June Consumer Price Index report, which is considered a very important report for investors because it will provide the latest inflation data and also give the market a major indication about the future of US interest rates.

Not only this, but Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will also deliver his congressional testimony later in the day, which investors are ready to listen to very closely because whether his tone is dovish or hawkish will have a major impact on the Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, and Forex markets.

US Inflation Expected To Slow Down

Looking at the overall situation, economists are expecting that headline inflation will slow to 3.8 percent year over year, compared with 4.2 percent in May. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to decline by 0.1 percent, whereas it had increased by 0.5 percent in the previous month.

Not only this, but investors are also closely watching the Core CPI report as well. In this report, food and energy prices are not included, which is why it gives a better picture of the actual inflation. According to analysts’ estimates, Core CPI will rise by 0.2 percent from the previous month, while the annual rate will remain stable at 2.9 percent which is the same as May.

Lower Inflation Could Lift Crypto And Gold

If inflation comes in lower, as expected, and Kevin Warsh also sounds dovish, the US dollar could fall, while Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, and foreign currencies would receive support. On the other hand, if inflation comes in higher or Warsh sounds hawkish, the US dollar will strengthen, and Gold, Silver, and cryptocurrencies could come under pressure.

As expected, inflation is projected to slow to 3.8 percent, and the reason for this is the sharp decline in crude oil prices during June. If you remember, oil prices fell by more than 20 percent after the United States and Iran announced a ceasefire and started negotiations, which reduced concerns over global oil supplies and pushed down fuel prices such as petrol and diesel. Therefore, one of the biggest reasons for lower inflation in June is lower fuel prices.

Gold

Gold prices recovered some ground on Tuesday and are trading near the 4,017 level. Hence, the softer CPI and dovish comments from Kevin Warsh could push Gold higher as demand for safe-haven assets increases and the US Dollar weakens.

Silver

At the time of writing, Silver is trading around $57.91 per ounce, showing 0.45 percent gain on the day. Cooling inflation and a dovish Fed outlook could support Silver prices, while hotter inflation and hawkish comments may trigger a pullback as the Dollar strengthens.

Forex

Meanwhile, EUR/USD is trading near 1.1396, showing gains. Hence, the weaker CPI and dovish Fed comments could weaken the US Dollar, allowing major currency pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD to move higher. On the other hand, stronger inflation and hawkish remarks could boost the Dollar and weigh on major Forex pairs.

US Dollar

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 101.10, showing declines. A stronger-than-expected CPI report or hawkish comments from Kevin Warsh could strengthen the Dollar as traders reduce expectations for interest rate cuts. A softer inflation report and dovish remarks could send the Dollar lower.

Crypto

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,605, showing less than 1 percent losses. Lower inflation and a dovish Fed outlook could improve risk sentiment, supporting Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Markets are expected to remain highly volatile throughout the session, as investors react first to the CPI report and then to Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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