March 7 – Economic Events Outlook, Risk-off Sentiment In Play

Posted Wednesday, March 7, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Good morning, traders.

Thanks to the Bank of Japan and Trump for the volatile market as our forex trading signals managed to close five winning signals. Today, investors are likely to trade using a risk-off sentiment. The risk appetite faded in the markets after news got out that Donald Trump’s top economic advisor, Gary Cohn, is resigning from his seat at the White House. Keeping that in mind, the US dollar and indices are likely to trade under pressure, while the demand for Gold and other safe-haven assets, remains high.

Watchlist – Top Economic Events

Australian Dollar – AUD

GDP q/q – As per the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian GDP grew by 0.4% vs. the 0.5% forecast. This is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. The Aussie lost ground against its peers and fell nearly 60 pips in the early Asian session.

Japanese Yen – JPY

Leading Indicators – The Cabinet Office is set to release the leading indicators at 5:00 (GMT). This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released prior to the index. There’s a revised version of this indicator released about 10 days later, but it lacks any significance.

The index is a combined reading of 11 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.

US Dollar – USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – The ADP figure will remain in focus at 13:15 (GMT), but this time we expect a smaller increase of 194K vs. 234K beforehand. The ADP figures mostly correlate with the NFP data on Friday, therefore, the dollar keeps trading on sentiments after the release of ADP data.  

Canadian Dollar – CAD

Canadian Monetary Policy – At 15:00 (GMT), you need to watch the Overnight Rate decision from the Bank of Canada. Back in Jan, the BOC raised interest rates after better than expected economic events, specifically the labor market data. However, they have faced challenges since that time. As you know, Trump recently imposed tariffs. These are detrimental to Canada’s economic health. Additionally, the Canadian job sector dip by 88K in January, along with worse than expected retail sales reports.

Having said that, the BOC Rate Statement is likely to be dovish and we may see another round of selling in the Loonie.

Trade Balance – Besides the Canadian monetary policy, the trade balance figures are worth watching today. Economists are expecting a deficit of -2.5B vs. -3.2B previously. A better than expected release is likely to drive bullish waves in the CAD, considering the fact that the Canadian economy earns its bread and butter from their exports.

That’s it for now, see you again with the next update on today’s top forex trade setups. Good luck!

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