Crude Oil Standstill – It’s Time to Trade The Range!

Posted Wednesday, October 17, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Crude oil consolidates in a narrow trading range of $70.85 – $72.35 despite the fact that the industry data showed a surprise decline in US crude inventories. Looks like the Chinese economic growth slowed down amid the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China. For the moment, the traders await the EIA Crude Oil Inventories which usually drives an immense amount of volatility in tlcrude oil.

US EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock
The Energy Information Administration is due to report the weekly inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks. The figure shows a change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

Today at 14:30 (GMT), the EIA is due to release the stockpiles report which significantly impacts the crude oil prices. The previous figure reported a build of 6M barrels while the current forecast is suggesting a build of 1.6M. We may see fluctuations in oil prices only in case of the major draw like -5M or build like +7M.

WTI Crude Oil – Technical Outlook

The technical outlook hasn’t changed much. Crude oil has completed the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement at $72.35 before falling below the 50- periods EMA at $71.80. Crude may face an immediate support at $70.85 and $70.45 ( a solid one) while the resistance is at $72.50 and $72. Stochastics are signaling bearishness in crude oil.

Crude Oil Trading Plan

Traders, we can trade crude oil in three different ways:

  • Stay bearish below $72.35 with a stop at $72.60 and a take profit at $71.50.
  • Stay bullish above $70.85 with a stop at 70.45 and a take profit at $72.
  • Trade the breakout: Well, that’s my favorite. Upon the release of EIA reports, we may also experience a breakout in crude oil. The bullish breakout of 72.35 can lead WTI prices towards $73.50. While the bearish breakout is likely to cause a drop until $70.10. Good luck!
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About the author

Arslan Butt is our Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt is our Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst. Arslan is a professional market analyst and day trader. He holds an MBA in Behavioral Finance and is working towards his Ph.D. Before joining FX Leaders Arslan served as a senior analyst in a major brokerage firm. Arslan is also an experienced instructor and public speaker.
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