Forex Signals Brief for Oct 9: FOMC Minutes in Focus
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
It’s been a quiet week economic data-wise, but the headline act of the week is set to drop this evening in the form of the FOMC Minutes.
If you recall, at the September meeting of the FOMC, the members elected to cut rates by 25bp, the second cut we’ve seen this year.
However, the members were far from unanimous in their decision. With around a third of them unsure on how they should be proceeding.
As of this week, the odds of another rate cut have jumped sharply to around 80%. That is a significant leap forward as the last FOMC meeting was seen as a ‘hawkish cut’ and odds of further cuts were priced in around the 30% mark.
Either way, the hope today is that the minutes might shed some more light on what exactly the members are thinking.
This week we’ve been hearing from Fed boss Jerome Powell quite regularly and he is reinforcing their stance that monetary policy decisions are ‘data-driven’ and not set on any fixed path at the moment.
Either way, we should expect some reaction to today’s release with the Greenback and SPX likely to be in the firing line.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team had a strong session with 4 wins from 5 signals.
Oil – Pending Signal
WTI has been weak for a few months now, but the $50 level is a big one and will provide some trouble for the bears to break. As such, we are expecting to see a bounce once we get a little closer.
Gold – Pending Signal
GOLD has reclaimed the $1500 level for the time being but is somewhat directionless and range-bound at the moment. Depending on what we hear from the FOMC we could see some momentum come back into Gold today.
BTC is back consolidating at the moment, but it does appear that price is forming another wedge or triangle type pattern.
To the downside, $7,800 looks like the support level along the bottom, while the $8,400 mark is the top of the downtrend line.
As we’ve seen before, Bitcoin does like to coil tightly and break out, so I would again suggest looking for an opportunity to go with a break and play the momentum spot.
Ideally, this one breaks to the downside, for more bang and good follow-through.