Are the problems in the banking sector over?

Forex Signals Brief for March 16: The Data Doesn’t Matter Now As Banks Start Collapsing

Posted Thursday, March 16, 2023 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Markets were feeling pretty positive until a week ago, as the data was showing a bounce in the global economy and the FED wasn’t embarking on another hawkish stance. Now, the situation has turned upside-down as major banks are starting to fail. The economic data has been quite heavy this week, with the US consumer inflation report (CPI) being released on Tuesday, while yesterday the producer inflation numbers (PPI), retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index showed a deterioration.

This should have sent the USD tumbling lower as the FED is looking at inflation for direction, but right now we have bigger problems. The USD tumbled after the failure of the SVB bank, but yesterday it turned bullish, particularly safe havens such as the JPY and Gold, as Credit Suisse’s troubles caused credit swaps to blow up, with markets pricing in a serious risk of default by the Swiss bank.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the economic calendar is heavy once again, having started with Chinese industrial production and Fixed Asset Investment which showed another increase last month. The Eurozone industrial production also showed an increase after the decline in January. Later on, we have the producer inflation (PPI) report from the US which is expected to show a slight cool-off for last month while retail sales are expected to turn negative. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is also expected to show a slight deterioration.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility picked up again, as the Credit Suisse troubles sent jitters across financial markets. Safe havens surged while risk assets crashed, although it wasn’t a straightforward ride. There were large up-and-down moves that caught us on the wrong side a few times. Although we ended up with seven winning trading signals and four losing ones.

GOLD Heads Toward $2,000 Again

We continue to remain long on Gold since last week as the sentiment remains quite bullish, with the price heading for $2,000 on financial worries. Although, we played both sides yesterday, since there were large dips besides the major surge.

XAU/USD – 60 minute chart 

 EUR/USD Targeting 1.05

EUR/USD continues to make strong reversals. It made a strong bullish move last week as the USD weakened on the SVB bank failure. But, the troubles with the Credit Suisse bank sent this pair down yesterday, while the USD surged higher. We opened two sell EUR/USD signals yesterday, which closed in profit.

EUR/USD – 240 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies started to stabilize yesterday after the recent surge higher on Tuesday, showing strong buying pressure once again, after retreating lower since the last week of February. BTC climbed above $26,000 but it stabilized below $25,000 yesterday, while ETH is heading toward $1,800.

BITCOIN Stabilizes After the Latest Surge

Bitcoin started retreating in late February and the 50 SMA (yellow) was broken on the daily chart, while the decline escalated and BTC fell below $20,000 eventually. But the 200 SMA (purple) held as support and we decided to open a buy BTC signal which hit the TP target on Wednesday after the strong bounce off the 200 SMA.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

ETHEREUM Above $1,700 Again

Ethereum pushed above moving averages in January which soon turned into support. Last week sellers pushed the price below the 50 daily SMA (yellow) as well as below the 200 SMA (purple). But, buyers came back and closed that day as a hammer candlestick, which is a bullish reversing signal. Over the weekend ETH has turned bullish and is now trading above $1,700 again.

ETH/USD – Daily chart
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