South African Petrol Prices to Drop Further as Global Crude Oil Dips Below $60
Lower international oil prices and easing inflation are setting the stage for more fuel relief at the pump for South African drivers again..
Quick overview
- Lower international oil prices and easing inflation are expected to provide further fuel relief for South African drivers in May.
- Global oil prices have significantly declined, with US WTI crude settling below $60, impacting fuel-importing nations like South Africa.
- Local fuel prices have already decreased in March and April, with further reductions anticipated in May due to ongoing trends in oil prices.
- Despite falling oil prices, the South African Rand remains under pressure, which could temper the benefits of lower fuel costs.
Live USOIL Chart
Lower international oil prices and easing inflation are setting the stage for more fuel relief at the pump for South African drivers again in May.
Global Oil Prices Retreat Sharply
After showing strength earlier this year, global oil prices have taken a significant downturn. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled below the critical $60 level at the end of April—a move that has wide-reaching implications for fuel-importing nations like South Africa. This price slide reflects weaker global demand, ongoing trade tensions, and shifting geopolitical conditions.
WTI Oil Chart Daily – The 200 SMA Pushing Crude Down 
Local Fuel Costs Already Falling
According to updated figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), South Africa saw fuel price reductions in both March and April—up to 72 cents per liter for petrol and 86 cents for diesel. With current oil price trends holding, a further drop in prices is expected in May. The decline has already contributed to a dramatic fall in inflation, which eased to 2.7% in March—its lowest point in five years.
🇿🇦 Fuel prices in South Africa have been on an upward trend in early 2025, reflecting both global oil market volatility and domestic currency pressures.
📅 January 1, 2025: Petrol price stood at 21.34 Rand per litre, marking the lowest level in the first quarter.
📅 February 5, 2025: Price rose slightly to 22.16 Rand, driven by higher international oil prices and a softer rand.
📅 March 5, 2025: Fuel prices eased marginally to 22.09 Rand, despite continued pressure from crude supply constraints.
📅 April 2, 2025: The pump price decreased to 21.51 Rand, offering temporary relief but still remaining elevated compared to early January.
Tariff Impact and OPEC Moves Turn Out Positive, Weighing on Oil Prices
The 10% universal tariffs imposed by the United States in April dampened investor appetite for commodities, including energy. This added to pressure on oil prices, already facing headwinds from possible diplomatic progress in the Russia–Ukraine conflict and increased OPEC output, with plans to raise production by 400,000 barrels per day. These combined factors are pushing crude markets into surplus territory, further supporting lower prices.
Rand Volatility Adds Complexity
Despite falling oil prices, the South African Rand remains under pressure. The USD/ZAR currency pair surged toward the 20.00 level—the all-time high—before correcting sharply. However, the broader trend remains one of Rand weakness, with key technical levels and moving averages signaling ongoing vulnerability. This could temper some of the benefits of falling oil prices if the currency continues to weaken.
Projected Fuel Price Changes for South Africa – May Outlook
- Petrol 95:
Expected to decrease by 21 to 30 cents per litre, reflecting lower global crude oil prices and adjustments in local cost structures. - Petrol 93:
Forecasted to decline by 18 to 30 cents per litre, with regional pricing variations possibly influencing the final reduction. - Diesel (both 0.05% and 0.005% grades):
Set for a more substantial drop of 38 to 50 cents per litre, providing some relief to freight and logistics sectors sensitive to fuel costs. - Illuminating Paraffin:
Projected to decrease by around 30 cents per liter, helping to ease household energy expenses in lower-income communities. - Outlook and Conclusion
So, further relief in fuel costs in the near term for the South African consumers, with May shaping up for another price cut. The combination of lower global crude prices and subdued inflation provides a temporary cushion for households and businesses. However, a sustained Rand depreciation could offset these gains over time, keeping the longer-term outlook more cautious. Stability in global supply, continued softness in crude, and currency behavior will be the key variables to watch in the months ahead.
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