Dogecoin ETF Chances Shrink—15% Approval Odds as SEC Decision Looms

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision on Grayscale Investment’s spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF, which was filed in March 2025. This includes other altcoin ETFs like XRP and Solana as the SEC reviews over 70 cryptocurrency ETF applications. Investors are getting impatient but the SEC is emphasizing the need for thorough review to ensure compliance with Section 6(b)(5) of the Exchange Act to prevent fraud and market manipulation.

Notably, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, already approved and trading, are still attracting a lot of investor interest, showing that there’s demand for regulated crypto products despite the delays with newer altcoin ETFs.

Timeline and Current Approval Odds

The next SEC decision window for the Dogecoin ETF is June 2025. But the regulator has made it clear this is part of the additional analysis phase and not a sign of approval or rejection.

• Polymarket currently estimates a 15% chance of Dogecoin ETF approval before July end, down 7% in the last day.

• Long term odds for 2025 approval is 63%, stronger investor confidence later in the year.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said that SEC delays on 19b-4 filings which includes ETF applications follow the regular regulatory timeline. Most filings have final due dates in October so early approvals are rare and not related to regulatory bias.

Industry Perspectives on SEC’s Review Process

Market watchers agree there’s no hidden agenda behind the SEC’s caution. The commission is committed to investor protection and fraud prevention which requires thorough review of crypto ETFs.

Key points on the current regulatory environment:

• SEC is reviewing ETFs to align with federal securities laws.

• Delays affect altcoin ETFs like Dogecoin, XRP and Solana equally.

• Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are proving market appetite for regulated crypto exposure.

• No confirmed conspiracy or crypto-friendliness bias in the timeline.

This is similar to previous ETF launches like Bitcoin that experienced delays but eventually drove huge inflows and price gains post approval. Investors and issuers now wait for the October deadlines for clearer signals on Dogecoin and other altcoin ETFs. That’s the tradeoff between crypto innovation and investor protection. Fingers crossed.