South Africa Fuel Prices: Petrol and Diesel Hikes Loom as CEF Shows Mixed Relief Signals
South African fuel prices are still expected to rise in May, even as new data shows a sharp easing in under-recoveries during April.
Quick overview
- South African fuel prices are expected to rise in May, despite a significant easing in under-recoveries during April.
- Petrol prices are projected to increase by R1.82 to R2.14 per litre, while diesel prices may rise by nearly R6 per litre.
- Global oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions, maintaining pressure on local fuel prices.
- The temporary R3 per litre fuel levy cut is set to expire on May 6, adding uncertainty to future price adjustments.
South African fuel prices are still expected to rise in May, even as new data shows a sharp easing in under-recoveries during April.
May Fuel Price Outlook Still Points Upward
Data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the end of the third week of April indicates that motorists are still facing fuel price increases in May, although the scale of those hikes has eased significantly compared to earlier in the month.
Despite a sharp improvement in conditions, the underlying trajectory still points to upward pressure at the pumps.
Under-Recoveries Fall Sharply Through April
At the start of the current pricing review period (27 March to 30 April 2026), petrol showed an under-recovery of R7.88 per litre, while diesel stood at a steep R17.57 per litre.
However, by the third week of April, these gaps had narrowed substantially:
- Petrol 93: expected increase of R1.82 per litre
- Petrol 95: expected increase of R2.14 per litre
- Diesel (0.005% sulphur): R5.93 per litre increase
- Diesel (0.05% wholesale): R5.92 per litre increase
- Illuminating paraffin: R4.99 per litre increase
Overall, petrol under-recoveries have fallen by about 73%, while diesel has eased by more than 66%.
Global Oil and Rand Keep Pressure Intact
The CEF notes that nearly all of the remaining under-recovery—around 99.5%—is driven by international petroleum product prices, meaning global oil trends remain the dominant factor.
Oil prices have pushed back above $100 per barrel amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route.
At the same time, the rand has shown relative stability, trading near R16.64/$ despite intermittent risk-off shocks tied to geopolitical developments.
Fuel Levy Relief Clouding the Outlook
Adding to uncertainty is the temporary R3 per litre fuel levy cut introduced by the National Treasury, which is set to expire on 6 May.
While government is considering an extension, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has warned that such relief is fiscally costly and must remain budget-neutral, meaning any extension would need to be offset elsewhere.
What Comes Next for Motorists
Even with improved CEF data, the combination of rising global oil prices and the looming expiry of fuel tax relief means South African motorists are not out of the woods.
Depending on policy decisions in early May, fuel prices could either rise moderately—or jump significantly if the levy relief is withdrawn in full.
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