Strong U.S. Job Growth Further Reduces Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts

The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, matching market forecasts.

Quick overview

  • U.S. job growth exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month, adding 115,000 jobs in April and keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
  • The stronger-than-expected employment data suggests the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated interest rates into 2026 and beyond.
  • While the labor market shows resilience, the underemployment rate rose to 8.2%, indicating some workers are struggling to find suitable employment.
  • Wage growth remains weak at 0.2%, trailing behind inflation, which continues to pressure real purchasing power.

For the second consecutive month, U.S. job growth exceeded Wall Street expectations, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated well into 2026—and possibly beyond.

The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, matching market forecasts.

The payroll figure was nearly double the 65,000 jobs expected by analysts. In addition, March payroll data was revised higher to 185,000 jobs from the previously reported 178,000.

The back-to-back six-figure employment gains marked the first such streak since late 2024.

Labor Market Remains Resilient

The stronger-than-expected data further reduced pressure on the Fed to begin cutting interest rates anytime soon.

Although the headline unemployment rate remained stable for a second straight month, broader labor market indicators showed some signs of cooling.

The underemployment rate—which includes workers seeking more hours or employed below their skill level—rose 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%.

That increase suggests a growing number of workers are struggling to secure full-time employment or positions that match their qualifications, often an early signal of softening labor market conditions.

Wage Growth Still Trails Inflation

Average monthly wage growth came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% expected by economists and matching March’s relatively weak reading.

With the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index rising 0.7% in March, wage gains continue to lag inflation, meaning real purchasing power remains under pressure.

Health Care and Logistics Lead Hiring

The largest gains in employment came from the health care, transportation, and warehousing sectors, which helped lift overall payroll growth.

Hiring in health care and education once again accounted for a substantial share of total job creation, continuing a pattern seen throughout recent months.

One of the market’s main concerns had been that payroll growth was becoming overly dependent on health care and social assistance jobs. April’s report partially eased those fears by showing broader contributions from logistics and transportation.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Ignacio Teson
Economist and Financial Analyst
Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

Related Articles

HFM

HFM rest

Pu Prime

XM

Best Forex Brokers