JP Morgan Sees Silver Averaging $80+/oz as Tightness Fuels Bull Case

China's massive silver imports and strong domestic demand contributed to a dramatic short squeeze, backwardation in futures markets, and a historic price surge earlier this year.

Written by: Olumide Adesina • Monday, July 6, 2026 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Monday, July 6, 2026

Silver’s Violent Reset Gives Way to a Pivotal Macro Week

Quick overview

China's silver imports reached record levels, with March alone seeing ~800–836 tonnes, a 173% increase from the 10-year average.
Strong domestic demand, particularly for solar panel production, and a retail investment frenzy contributed to a significant price surge in silver.
The silver market is experiencing tight global supply and structural deficits, leading to a rare backwardation and a dramatic short squeeze.
Despite recent price corrections, analysts predict a bullish outlook for silver, with potential averages near $80+/oz for the year.

China’s massive silver imports and strong domestic demand contributed to a dramatic short squeeze, backwardation in futures markets, and a historic price surge earlier this year.

Silver’s Violent Reset Gives Way to a Pivotal Macro Week

China imported record volumes of silver — March alone saw ~800–836 tonnes, up 173% from the 10-year seasonal average and the highest monthly figure in years. Year-to-date imports through early 2026 hit multi-year highs (e.g., ~1,626 tonnes in the first few months).

Industrial demand — Especially solar panel production (silver is critical for photovoltaics) and other manufacturing.

Retail/investment frenzy — Chinese “auntie” investors and speculative flows poured into silver amid economic uncertainty, with social media amplifying arbitrage plays on local funds.

Tight global supply — The silver market has faced multi-year deficits (hundreds of millions of ounces drawn from above-ground stocks since 2021). Visible inventories in London, COMEX, and Shanghai vaults dropped sharply.

A rare backwardation (near-term prices higher than future ones), physical tightness, and a short squeeze. Spot silver rocketed from the ~$30 range in 2025 to an all-time high of $121.69/oz in late January 2026. Shanghai prices hit records around $103/oz at one point, with big premiums over Western markets. Spot silver is trading around $61–63/oz (down from the $121 high, with recent fluctuations).

The market has cooled from the extreme frenzy, but structural deficits, ongoing Chinese/Asian demand, and industrial uses (solar, AI/electronics) keep a bullish undertone. Analysts like J.P. Morgan see potential averages near $80+/oz for the year, with some higher targets if tightness persists.

Much of the action reflects private/commercial buying amid global shortages, plus China acting as both a major exporter and an aggressive importer depending on domestic needs.

Silver remains volatile — sensitive to industrial cycles, investor sentiment, and macro factors like interest rates or geopolitical tensions. The 2026 squeeze was one of the most dramatic moves in its history, but corrections are common after such spikes.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Olumide Adesina

Financial Market Writer

Olumide Adesina is a French-born Nigerian financial writer. He tracks the financial markets with over 15 years of working experience in investment trading.