QBTS and RGTI Stock Risk Breakdown as AI Bubble Fears Grow on Weak Revenue and Chip Weakness

Quick overview

Quantum computing stocks extended their pullback as investors shifted their attention from government funding headlines to commercialization risks, weak revenues, and increasingly demanding valuations.

Quantum Rally Loses Steam as Investors Turn More Skeptical

After delivering some of the market’s strongest gains during 2025, shares of D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing are rapidly losing momentum as investors reassess the gap between long-term technological promise and near-term commercial reality.

The recent selloff reflects a broader shift in sentiment away from speculative growth stories and toward companies with established earnings visibility. While government support and technological breakthroughs continue generating headlines, investors are becoming increasingly focused on whether revenues can eventually justify valuations that expanded dramatically during last year’s rally.

Analysts have become increasingly vocal in warning that the quantum investment boom may be developing characteristics similar to previous technology bubbles, with some arguing that the “quantum bubble” has become large enough to warrant serious attention.

QBTS and RGTI Give Back Recent Gains

Selling pressure intensified this week as both Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum declined sharply.

RGTI fell toward the $16 level while QBTS moved closer to the $20 mark, extending a broader correction that has erased a significant portion of recent gains. The speed of the reversal highlights the fragile nature of investor confidence in one of the market’s most speculative sectors.

The weakness was amplified by a broader retreat across semiconductor and AI-related equities, where investors aggressively reduced exposure following months of exceptional performance.

Asian Chip Rout Spreads Across Technology Markets

The immediate catalyst behind the latest decline came from renewed selling pressure across Asian semiconductor markets.

South Korea’s KOSPI index dropped nearly 5%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 2%, dragging technology shares lower globally. The weakness spread quickly across memory manufacturers, AI infrastructure providers, and emerging technology companies.

Adding to the negative sentiment, Samsung reported preliminary second-quarter operating profit of 89.4 trillion won, equivalent to approximately $58.4 billion, representing an extraordinary 1,800% increase from the previous year due to strong memory demand.

Despite the record earnings growth, Samsung shares fell 6.9% in a classic sell-the-news reaction as investors locked in profits after an extended rally.

The selloff rapidly spread to U.S. semiconductor stocks, with Micron Technology and Western Digital both falling around 6%, while Nasdaq futures weakened as investors questioned whether the broader technology sector had become overextended.

Quantum stocks, despite operating in a different niche, were caught in the broader rotation out of high-growth technology names.

Revenue Growth Fails to Support Valuations

The biggest challenge facing the sector remains the disconnect between valuation and commercial progress.

D-Wave reported impressive full-year 2025 revenue growth of 179% year over year. However, total annual revenue amounted to only approximately $25 million, highlighting how early the industry remains in its commercial development cycle.

Rigetti faces an even more difficult situation, with full-year 2025 revenue actually declining compared with the prior year despite the stock’s dramatic appreciation.

For investors increasingly focused on fundamentals, these numbers raise difficult questions about whether current valuations can be justified without a significant acceleration in commercial adoption.

Government Funding Loses Its Market Impact

Government funding announcements were a major catalyst behind the quantum rally earlier in the year, but investors appear far less impressed today.

D-Wave recently secured a $1.56 million grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation through the National Quantum Virtual Laboratory program. The funding supports participation in the ERASE initiative, which focuses on developing fault-tolerant quantum computing technologies.

Meanwhile, Rigetti announced that it could potentially receive up to $100 million under the CHIPS Act.

However, the proposed funding currently exists only as a non-binding letter of intent and remains dependent on the company meeting future development milestones. The lack of certainty surrounding both the amount and timing of funding has reduced investor enthusiasm considerably.

Markets are increasingly distinguishing between headline announcements and guaranteed financial support.

After a brief recovery above $30, the stock came once again come under pressure in June, continuing the downtrend that has seen it decline nearly 75% from its October peak and now it is heading to $20. Meanwhile the RGTI stock couldn’t climb above 30 and also reversed down in June, slipping below the 50 SMA, and is now testing the 100 weekly SMA and is heading toward $15 again.

RGTI Chart Weekly – Testing the 200 SMA

Technology Progress Fails to Calm Investors

Rigetti has continued advancing its technology roadmap, recently unveiling its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 quantum processor and making the platform available through major cloud providers.

While the launch represents a meaningful technical achievement, investors remain more concerned about commercialization timelines than engineering milestones.

The same challenge applies across the broader quantum industry. Despite growing strategic importance and increasing government support, most companies remain years away from generating material revenue or demonstrating scalable business models.

Strategic Importance Does Not Guarantee Commercial Success

Governments increasingly view quantum computing as strategically important for national security, scientific leadership, and economic competitiveness.

Large investments continue flowing into the sector, including IBM’s plans to establish a quantum chip foundry in New York supported by approximately $1 billion in funding.

However, strategic importance alone does not eliminate commercial risk.

Most quantum companies continue operating with limited revenue, uncertain profitability timelines, and evolving business models. As a result, investors appear increasingly unwilling to pay premium valuations based solely on future potential.

The recent decline in QBTS and RGTI suggests the market is entering a new phase where technological promise may no longer be enough. Until companies can demonstrate sustainable revenue growth and a clearer path toward commercialization, quantum stocks could remain vulnerable to further corrections as speculative enthusiasm gives way to financial reality.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

QBTS Stock Targets $20 as Funding Uncertainty and Hawkish FED Weigh on Shares

3 weeks ago

Save

QBTS Stock and RGTI Head to $20 as Investors Await Concrete Govt Funding Progress

3 weeks ago

Save

QTBS and RGTI Dive as Quantum Stocks Pull Back After Policy-Driven Surge, while Investors Reassess Risk

1 month ago

Save