TSLA: Tesla faces a Bumpy ride, Valuation Pricy

Quick overview
- Market strategists are questioning Tesla's high valuation, with concerns about its stock trading at ten times revenue post-robotaxi launch.
- Chad Morganlander from Washington Crossing Advisors highlighted Tesla's inflated stock multiple compared to established competitors like Alphabet's Waymo.
- Recent research from JPMorgan indicates a significant decline in consensus earnings per share estimates for Tesla over the next few years.
- Tesla's sales and earnings are heavily influenced by tax credits, which Brinkman estimates account for about 52% of its current earnings.
Market strategists question Tesla’s valuation. Chad Morganlander, senior portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, stated, “This stock trades at ten times revenue after Tesla’s robotaxi launch; there are a lot of jazz hands at work.”
“You have an insane [stock] multiple. “The boutique investment bank Stifel (SF) is the sole owner of Washington Crossing Advisors. It manages assets worth roughly $2 billion.
Morganlander claimed to be the sole owner of Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), a tech behemoth that runs the more well-known Waymo driverless taxi service. In 2018, Waymo made its driverless taxi debut in Phoenix. Morganlander clarified, “Waymo has been proven, and it’s working in many cities.”.
Morganlander notes that Tesla’s core values and valuation extend beyond the share’s revenue multiple, which includes its high forward price-to-earnings multiple of 178 times.
Ryan Brinkman, an auto analyst at JPMorgan, recently released research showing that consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have fallen 77 percent, 70 percent, and 71 percent for Tesla since October 2022.
These tax credits have affected Tesla’s sales and earnings. Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” could deal with EV subsidies, which Brinkman calculates make up about 52% of Tesla’s present earnings.
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