Gold Price Forecast Today: XAU/USD Holds Above $4,060 Ahead of ISM PMI and NFP Week

Quick overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading close to $4,064 ahead of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, the first significant economic data of the week. Focus will also be on the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, which are poised to alter the case for the Federal Reserve, the Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. According to Reuters, the labor-market data are anticipated to be the key data for the week as traders are focusing on the data after central bank communications last week. (Link Reuters article)

The week for Gold starts with prices consolidating as traders are ready for various impactful U.S. economic releases. While central bank purchasing continues to add support in the long-term; for the Gold price, the fixture in the short term is if the data will be supportive or detrimental to the Fed expectations.

Gold’s Critical Week: ISM PMI

The ISM Manufacturing PMI that will be released today is the first major data point of the week with the potential to impact Gold prices. This manufacturing survey will be the first of many, with job openings JOLTS, ADP, ISM Services PMI, initial jobless claims, and the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

A PMI result that shows Gold in a more positive light would be a negative result for PMI, which would signal a negative result for Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Stronger PMI data would most likely lead to a stronger dollar and lower demand for Gold.

Reuters has reported that the Gold market is reacting to U.S. macro data, especially after the Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold.

Gold Market’s Positive Long-term Outlook Despite Recent Consolidation

As per the Gold Demand Trends Report Q2 2026, published by the World Gold Council, total gold demand was 1,269 tonnes for the quarter. Total first-half demand was 2,522 tonnes, and first-half demand was estimated at a record high of $380 billion.

Buying by the official sector was the strongest market pillar. Central banks bought 289 tonnes, up 62% year on year. Poland bought 51 tonnes, and China purchased 33 tonnes.

As Western ETF flows are sensitive to interest-rate expectations, the World Gold Council also expects that investment demand, especially through the OTC markets and in Asia, will be the more significant demand driver in the second half of 2026.

Supply Growth Remains Limited

Supply conditions in the market continue to be supportive. For the second quarter, mine production rose by just under 2%, reaching 966 tonnes. In contrast, an observed reduction in selling, due to a consolidation in prices, saw a 6% decline in recycling.

Due to the extended development times of new mining projects, the World Gold Council projects only limited supply growth for the rest of the year.

While there are periodic changes in investment demand, supply for gold remains relatively tight and provides structural underpinning for the metal.

Gold Bullish Breakout Target: $4,112

Since the previous report, Gold has established another higher low and has left bullish signs. Gold is still holding above $4,061, the 50-day MA, and buyers are holding above the $4,057 support. The upper boundary of the triangle is $4,112 and sellers are present at this resistance.

Currently we see a neutral RSI at 51. Typically this indicates price consolidation. A break above $4,112 will bring new targets, as the next resistance would be $4,148, followed by $4,187. If the buyers do not hold the $4,057 support, the $4,022, $4,996 and $4,968 support zones will be the new targets. Resistance levels are currently at $4,112, $4,148, and $4,187; while support is at $4,057, $4,022, $3,996, and $3,968.

Buy Setup

A break and hold above $4,112 will create a buy signal. A target of $4,148 and a second target of $4,187 will be set, while placing a stop loss for this trade below $4,057. The outlook for Gold is cautiously bullish until it breaks below $4,057; however, a break above $4,112 is required to validate this bullish leg.

FAQs

Why is Gold consolidating currently?

Gold is in consolidation until the ISM Manufacturing PMI today and the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. These upcoming reports will likely affect the Fed and the US Dollar, all of which affect the price of Gold.

Why are central banks buying more Gold?

As a hedge against inflation, central banks are still diversifying their reserves. The World Gold Council noted 289 tonnes were purchased in Q2 2026. (Attach WGC report here)

What are the most important levels for Gold?

Target resistance is $4,112, $4,148, and $4,187. Supports are $4,057, $4,022, and $3,996.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Ali Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Ali Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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