Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Braces for Trump’s Address: Will $66,400 Rejection Trigger a Slide to $63K?

Quick overview

The cryptocurrency market is seeing a lot of action right now. As of February 25, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is making a volatile recovery, rebounding from recent lows and trading between $65,000 and $66,300.

Bulls are enjoying a 3.5% intraday jump, the strongest since mid-February, but concerns about a rejection at $66,400 remain.

Is this the beginning of a strong rally, or just a temporary bounce before a drop to $63,700? Let’s look at the technical and fundamental factors at play.

Bitcoin  Technical Battle: $66,400 is the Line in the Sand

Bitcoin is experiencing a typical technical squeeze. On the 2-hour chart, BTC recently tested the $66,400 resistance level but was quickly pushed back. This level is important because it matches the 50-period moving average ($66,528) and a descending trendline from the $68,600 high.

The Bearish Case: If Bitcoin cannot move back above $66,400, the lower high pattern will continue. This could lead to a drop toward:

• Immediate Support: $64,755
• Target Zone: $63,731
• Major Safety Net: $62,791

The Bullish Case: If Bitcoin breaks above $67,650, it would challenge the current bearish trend and could open the way for a move back toward the key $70,000 level.

Fundamental Headwinds: Trump, Tariffs, and Taxes

The recovery is not only about technical analysis. Traders are closely watching as President Trump gets ready to address Congress today.

1. The “Trump Effect” and Tariff Turmoil

Earlier this week, the Supreme Court limited the President’s emergency powers, which led to new authorities imposing 15% global tariffs. This risk-off mood pushed Bitcoin below $63,000.

Today’s price increase is mostly due to short covering, as investors wonder if the State of the Union address will signal a more stable economic outlook.

2. The IRS “1099-DA” Scare

For the 2026 tax season, the IRS has introduced Form 1099-DA. This new digital asset reporting rule is causing many US-based investors to sell their holdings to cover new tax bills.

This seasonal pressure has often made February a tough month for cryptocurrencies.

Institutional Sentiment: Institutional “Bleed” vs. Long-Term Greed

Institutional investors are currently giving mixed signals.

• ETF Outflows:S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost $4.5 billion in the first eight weeks of 2026. Last week alone, $360 million was withdrawn from these funds.
• Strategic Accumulation:  In contrast, the firm Strategy recently bought $39 million worth of BTC, making up almost 99% of all public company purchases during this period.
• The $150K Target: Despite recent negative sentiment, Standard Chartered and Bernstein still expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 to $200,000 during the 2026–2027 cycle.

The Verdict: Extreme Fear or Golden Opportunity?

With the Fear & Greed Index stuck in the Extreme Fear zone (5-14 points), some contrarian investors see this as a rare buying opportunity. For day traders, though, the main advice is:

Watch the $66,400 rejection. If the price remains capped by the descending trendline, the path of least resistance leads back to $63,700. If we flip $66,400 into support, the “Trump Rally” might finally have legs.

Trade Idea:

• Short Bias: Watch for rejection near $66,400, targeting $63,700.
• Stop Loss: Above $67,650.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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