USOIL Stabilizes Near $92 as US-Iran Talks Offer Hope – Blockade vs Diplomacy Keeps Oil Volatile

Quick overview

USOIL (WTI Crude Oil, May 2026 contract) is currently trading at around $91.50 to $92.60 a barrel on April 16th 2026, and after a bit of a rollercoaster ride, is only up by a modest 0.3 – 1.4% for the day after earlier volatility got the better of it.

What’s Been Happening Lately

Oil prices took quite a tumble on April 14th (WTI nearly 8% down to the low 90s ) when hopes of de-escalation kicked in before rebounding a bit today. The price had surged up by over 8% to around $104-$105 on April 13th though, after the weekend talks collapsed and a US blockade was announced.

The wild price swings are all down to how fluid this situation is: diplomacy might push prices back down to the $85-$90 zone, but if diplomacy breaks down, or things escalate, then we could see prices shoot up in no time.

Key Drivers for Today

• Iran Talks Back on the Agenda: President Trump has said that Iran have reached out and a second round of talks could be on for soon – probably over the next couple of days in Pakistan. He reckons it’s “very close to over” and thinks the Iranian rep’s want to make a deal pretty badly. And that’s all thanks to Pakistan stepping in as mediators.
• Blockade Still In Place: The US naval blockade of Iranian ports is still very much in effect, and no ships have been able to pass through in the first 24+ hours – and a few have even turned back. The Strait of Hormuz is still pretty much shut down, keeping things tight on the supply side, even though oil prices have taken a dip on the back of diplomatic optimism.
• Supply & Demand Signals: Recent inventory figures in the US showed a rise in crude stocks, which is not what we wanted to see – and on top of that, the IEA has warned about the risk of demand destruction if prices keep going up.

Looking at the Charts

WTI crude is trying to stabilise around $92.00-$92.50 after that sharp pullback from recent highs. Price is holding up just above the 0.236 Fibonacci level near $91.30, which just happens to line up with the 200 day average and that rising trendline support.

Lately the candles have been showing smaller bodies and lower wicks, which suggests that buyers are starting to step in around this demand zone.

The 50 day average is sloping down, which suggests we still have some short-term weakness, but the bigger picture still looks pretty solid above the $91.00 zone. RSI is just above 40, which means momentum is weak but not quite overdone – so there’s still room for a potential bounce.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $96.00-$98.50
• Support: $91.00-$87.00

Trade Idea: Buy above $93.30 and look to hit $98.50, but keep an eye out and be prepared to bail if we drop below $91.00.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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