Silver Smashes $94 Resistance: Why the “Silver Squeeze” of 2026 is Heading for $100
With the US-Israel-Iran conflict heating up, silver is no longer following its usual market patterns. Instead, it has become...
Quick overview
- Silver has surged to $94.50, gaining 8% in one day as investors seek safety amid escalating US-Israel-Iran tensions.
- Key factors driving silver's rise include the worsening conflict, potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, and a significant liquidity crunch in the COMEX futures market.
- Analysts report a 67-million-ounce shortfall in global silver supplies, prompting increased demand for physical silver and pushing spot prices higher.
- Technical analysis suggests silver is on an upward trajectory, with immediate support at $91.30 and a target of $97.70 in sight.
With the US-Israel-Iran conflict heating up, silver is no longer following its usual market patterns. Instead, it has become a go-to asset for investors looking for safety in uncertain times. On March 2, 2026, silver (XAG/USD) jumped to $94.50, gaining 8% in one day and beating gold’s strong performance.
What’s behind this move? Three main factors: the war is getting worse, there’s a risk the Strait of Hormuz could be completely blocked, and the COMEX futures market is facing a serious liquidity crunch. After the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and new strikes on Tehran, silver has become more than just an industrial metal. It now signals global instability.
The War Factor: Why Silver is Outperforming Gold
Gold is usually the top safe-haven, but silver tends to move faster and more sharply when markets are stressed. In the past 48 hours, silver has jumped 12.5% in global markets, while gold rose 3.3%.
- Hormuz Blockade: Iran’s restriction of the Strait of Hormuz has sent Brent crude toward $82/barrel. Historically, rising energy costs trigger silver rallies due to its dual role as an inflation hedge and an industrial essential.
- Supply Deficit: Analysts say there is a 67-million-ounce shortfall in global silver supplies. As the Middle East conflict disrupts shipping routes, more investors are buying physical silver. This has caused spot prices to rise well above futures prices.
Silver by the Numbers: The Path to Triple Digits
Silver has bounced back strongly since its low point in February. After dropping to $63 early in the month, it has recovered by 47% to reach today’s price.
- $94.90: High reached during early Monday trading in Asia.
- +8%: Single-day gain following reports of intensified strikes in Lebanon and Iran.
- $121: The January record high that analysts now expect to be tested by mid-March.
Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Eyes $97.70
Looking at the 4-hour chart, silver is still moving within a clear upward channel. The strong opening on Monday morning shows that momentum is building quickly.
- Support Zone: Immediate support has moved up to $91.30. As long as XAG/USD holds above the $89.50 level, the bullish structure is considered “bulletproof.”
- Resistance Levels: The first major target is $97.70. A clean break above this psychological barrier likely triggers a “gamma squeeze” toward $104.15.
- Moving Averages: Both the 50-period and 200-period MAs are sloping aggressively upward, providing a dynamic floor for any intraday pullbacks.
Silver Trade Idea: The “War-Hedge” Strategy
Because the market is so volatile, most professional traders are skipping market orders and using limit orders when prices dip.
The suggested approach is to buy if silver drops to the $92.00 to $92.50 range.
Short-term target: $97.70. Medium-term target: $104.00. If silver closes below $89.50 on the 4-hour chart, it would mean the recent war-driven gains are fading and prices could fall back toward $85.
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