EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1750–1.1770 as Renewed US-Iran Tensions Support Dollar Safe-Haven Flows
EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1750 to 1.1770 mark on April 20th, 2026. It's had a bit of a decent recovery so far in the early trading...
Quick overview
- EUR/USD is trading between 1.1750 and 1.1770, showing signs of recovery after a dip due to US/Iran tensions.
- Geopolitical issues have led to increased demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, while rising oil prices pose inflation risks for the eurozone.
- The ECB remains cautious about raising rates, monitoring the impact of the conflict on growth and inflation.
- Technical analysis indicates that EUR/USD is in an upward channel, with key support at $1.1730 and resistance at $1.1810.
EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1750 to 1.1770 mark on April 20th, 2026. It’s had a bit of a decent recovery so far in the early trading, considering the reversal we saw on Friday. The pair did dip though on renewed US/Iran tensions but is trying to edge its way up as markets try to make sense of all the mixed signals coming out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Drivers Today
- Geopolitical seesaw : We had a bit of a false dawn at the end of last week when it looked like there might be some progress on the reopening of the Strait and a possible ceasefire. But then things changed over the weekend – Iran went back on its word and reaffirmed control over the strait after accusing the US of violations and putting on some pressure with the navy. That really sent people running for cover and they started to buy up the dollar again as a safe-haven. And to make things worse for the eurozone, oil prices are rising which adds to the risk of higher inflation.
- Dollar gets a boost : The US-Iran stuff has renewed concerns about energy supplies and there’s still uncertainty about the truce holding (it’s due to expire around April 22nd). That is driving up USD demand as a safe-haven asset. However, if things do calm down a bit, we might see a shift back towards risk-taking and that could strengthen the euro again.
- ECB outlook : The ECB is still saying that they’re not looking to raise rates any time soon and are basically putting things on hold while they see how the situation develops. They do however seem to be getting a bit more concerned about the impact of the conflict on growth and inflation in the eurozone.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD on the 4 hour chart is still within a pretty clear upward channel. The price has pulled back a bit to around $1.1765 after hitting resistance at $1.1840. We had a pretty bearish looking reversal on the chart – a strong bearish engulfing candle followed by some smaller bodies that has signalled a bit of hesitation rather than a full blown reversal.
We’ve had the price test the trendline near $1.1730 which just so happens to line up with the 50-period moving average. That’s a pretty strong level of support and if we lose that, we could see price drop right back down again.
The bulls are still in control as long as we hold onto $1.1720-$1.1730. Push above $1.1810 could see us getting back up to $1.1840 and potentially even higher. On the other hand, if we break through that trendline we could see a deeper retracement back to $1.1688, which is just below some previous consolidation levels.
RSI is sitting at around 50, which is pretty neutral after a bit of a cooling down from being overbought earlier.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $1.1810, $1.1840, $1.1880
- Support: $1.1730, $1.1720, $1.1688
Trade Idea: Buy at $1.1780 or higher and target $1.1840, stop below $1.1720.
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