France Just Had Its Worst Consumer Confidence Reading in Four Years

INSEE's consumer confidence index fell from 89 to 84 in April, a five-point drop that nobody saw coming and that landed well below the 88...

Quick overview

  • France's consumer confidence index dropped from 89 to 84 in April, a significant decline that surprised analysts.
  • French households reported worsening financial situations and expectations, with both forward-looking and backward-looking measures falling sharply.
  • The broader European sentiment also declined, with the eurozone confidence reading hitting its lowest point in over two years.
  • Rising oil prices and supply chain issues, exacerbated by the Iran conflict, are contributing to increased costs for households.

The numbers out of France this month were bad enough to stop people mid-sentence. INSEE’s consumer confidence index fell from 89 to 84 in April, a five-point drop that nobody saw coming and that landed well below the 88 analysts had been expecting. The last time sentiment moved this sharply in a single month was when Russia went into Ukraine. That comparison alone tells you something about the kind of moment this is.

Dig into the details and the picture gets more specific. French households felt worse about their recent financial situation and worse about where things were heading. The forward-looking measure dropped seven points. The backward-looking one fell six. When both move hard in the same direction in the same month, it usually means something real is happening at the household level, not just a blip in the data.

The rest of Europe was not having a great April either. The European Commission’s eurozone confidence reading fell more than four points from March, touching its lowest mark in over two years. Italy, Ireland, Belgium, and Spain all saw sharp deterioration. Ipsos publishes a monthly global sentiment index covering 30 countries, and April’s reading nearly broke the historical record for the worst monthly fall the survey has ever captured. The only period that edged it out was the spring of 2020, when economies were shutting down and nobody knew what came next.

The Iran conflict is the common denominator. Oil has stayed expensive for seven weeks running, freight and insurance costs have climbed, and the path to normal on supply chains is not obvious. Energy imports make up a meaningful chunk of France’s external bill, so when crude stays elevated, it does not just affect petrol stations. The cost moves through food, heating, and logistics in ways that households feel before economists finish writing about it.

At some point people simply pull back, and that is where French consumers appear to be right now.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Sophia Cruz
Financial Writer - Asian & European Desks
Sophia is an experienced writer, reporter and newsdesk member, mostly on the financial sectors. For the past 5 years Sophia has covered a wide variety of topics such as the financial markets, economics, technology, fin-tech and trading. Sophia has been a part of the FX Leaders team since 2017 and works on producing valuable content and information for traders of all levels of experience.

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