Bitcoin Hits $76K Bear Market Ceiling as CryptoQuant Flags Distribution Risk
Bitcoin pushed toward $76,000 Thursday but ran straight into what CryptoQuant calls "major bear market resistance."
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is facing significant resistance around $76,800, which historically caps relief rallies in weak markets.
- Recent exchange inflows and large deposits indicate institutional distribution, suggesting that whales are preparing to sell.
- Daily realized profits are currently below the $1 billion mark, signaling that profit-taking is still in its early stages.
- While technical indicators show short-term bullish momentum, on-chain metrics reveal increasing distribution pressure.
Bitcoin pushed toward $76,000 Thursday but ran straight into what CryptoQuant calls “major bear market resistance.” The Traders’ Realized Price sits around $76,800 now. Historically, that level caps relief rallies when markets are structurally weak. BTC’s testing it again.
Exchange inflows spiked to 11,000 BTC hourly, highest since December. Large deposits jumped from under 10% of total inflows to over 40% within days. That pattern screams institutional distribution. When whales move size to exchanges near resistance, they’re usually preparing to sell.
Average deposit size climbed to 2.25 BTC, highest daily reading since July 2024. Individual transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC hitting Binance. Retail doesn’t move like that. This is funds and large holders positioning for exits.
Daily realized profits hit $500 million Wednesday. Still below the $1 billion threshold that historically marks significant profit-taking during bear rallies. CryptoQuant says that’s the tell. Profit-taking’s in early stages. Holders who bought between $65K and $76K are now green, creating a growing pool of unrealized gains itching to get locked in.
If Bitcoin holds above $76,000 or pushes toward $76,800, realized profits accelerate toward and past $1 billion. That’s when rallies stall or reverse in bear markets. Pattern repeated in March when inflows hit 9,000 BTC alongside concentrated large deposits right before a pullback.
The structural picture hasn’t changed. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno told BeInCrypto back in January that “basically every on-chain metric confirms we are in a bear market in the early stages.” ETF flows flipped to net selling in Q4 2025. Dolphin wallets (100-1,000 BTC) have been reducing positions. Funding rates collapsed to December 2023 lows.
Bitcoin dropped 52% from its cycle high at $126K. That’s less brutal than previous bears that saw 77-84% drawdowns, but it’s still a bear. The question’s not whether this is a bear market anymore. It’s how deep it goes and how long it lasts.
Technically BTC closed above the 200-week EMA last week and extended gains 6% this week. RSI at 43 on the weekly, pointing up toward neutral 50. MACD showing bullish crossover. Charts say short-term momentum favors bulls.
But on-chain says distribution pressure’s building. Price can rally on technicals while smart money exits. That’s how bear market relief rallies work. They look good on charts until they don’t.
The $76,800 Traders’ Realized Price matters because it represents the average cost basis for active traders. Breaking above it means traders flip profitable, which invites more selling. Staying under it keeps potential sellers underwater, reducing distribution pressure. Right now Bitcoin’s testing that exact level.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
- Read our latest reviews on: Avatrade, Exness, HFM and XM
Related Articles
Sidebar rates
Related Posts
Save
