QBTS Stock Targets $20 as Funding Uncertainty and Hawkish FED Weigh on Shares

Quick overview

The recent surge in QBTS and RGTI stocks has lost momentum as investors shift their focus from government funding announcements to commercialization risks, lofty valuations, and uncertain execution.

Quantum Stocks Give Back Recent Gains

Shares of Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum came under heavy selling pressure, with both stocks falling nearly 10% as investors locked in profits following a powerful rally in recent weeks. The decline pushed both companies back toward the closely watched $20 level, highlighting how quickly sentiment can reverse in one of the market’s most speculative technology sectors.

The selloff follows a sharp advance that was driven by optimism surrounding new federal initiatives designed to strengthen the U.S. quantum computing industry. However, as the initial excitement faded, investors began reassessing the challenges that still stand between government support and meaningful commercial success.

Government Funding Fueled the Initial Rally

The sector’s recent rally was sparked after the Trump administration announced a major initiative aimed at expanding America’s leadership in quantum computing.

The program includes more than $2 billion in incentives for selected quantum technology companies, with participating firms receiving funding in exchange for minority equity stakes held by the Department of Commerce. The initiative builds on investment models previously used to support strategic industries such as semiconductor manufacturing and critical minerals.

Initially, investors viewed the announcement as a major endorsement of the long-term potential of quantum computing, sending shares across the sector sharply higher.

Rigetti’s Funding Remains Uncertain

Despite the positive headlines, investors have become increasingly cautious as more details surrounding the funding have emerged.

Rigetti Computing announced that it could receive up to $100 million under the CHIPS Act. However, the proposed funding currently exists only as a non-binding letter of intent and remains dependent on the company achieving future development milestones.

This distinction has tempered investor enthusiasm, as the funding is neither guaranteed nor immediately available. Until binding agreements are finalized, uncertainty surrounding both the timing and size of potential government support is likely to remain a source of volatility.

Rigetti has also continued advancing its technology, recently introducing its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 quantum processor and making it available through major cloud platforms. While the launch represents an important technological milestone, it has not been enough to offset broader market concerns over valuation and execution.

Strategic Importance Does Not Eliminate Commercial Challenges

The latest government initiative underscores Washington’s growing view that quantum computing is becoming strategically important for both economic competitiveness and national security.

Among the largest announcements, IBM revealed plans to establish a new quantum chip foundry in Albany, New York, supported by approximately $1 billion in government funding. The investment reflects broader efforts to strengthen domestic leadership in next-generation computing technologies.

However, government backing alone does not guarantee commercial success. Most quantum computing companies remain in the early stages of product development, with limited revenue and business models that are still evolving.

After a brief recovery above $20 in February, the stock came once again come under pressure, continuing a broader downtrend that has seen it decline nearly 75% from its October peak. However QBTS stock climbed above $30 but couldn’t hold the gains and reversed lower, sending QBTS back toward $20. Meanwhile the RGTI stock below is now testing the 50 SMA, after falling to $20 lows again.

RGTI Chart Daily – Testing the 200 SMA

Investors Shift Focus to Execution

Following the sector’s rapid rally, investors are increasingly shifting their attention from policy announcements to execution.

Current valuations continue to reflect significant expectations for future technological breakthroughs and widespread commercial adoption, even though many practical applications remain years away. Funding announcements may improve long-term prospects, but investors now appear more focused on whether companies can meet development milestones, secure binding contracts, and translate innovation into sustainable revenue growth.

While federal support strengthens the industry’s long-term outlook, recent price action suggests speculative enthusiasm alone is no longer enough to sustain the rally. Until commercialization accelerates and funding commitments become more concrete, quantum computing stocks are likely to remain highly volatile as investors balance enormous potential against equally significant execution risks.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

QBTS Stock and RGTI Head to $20 as Investors Await Concrete Govt Funding Progress

1 day ago

Save

QTBS and RGTI Dive as Quantum Stocks Pull Back After Policy-Driven Surge, while Investors Reassess Risk

2 weeks ago

Save

QBTS Price Forecast: Will $100M CHIPS Act Capital Explode D-Wave Stock Levels Past $28?

3 weeks ago

Save