Petrol and Diesel Price Forecast South Africa Shows Sizable Cuts Despite End of Fuel Levy Relief

Significant fuel price reductions for South Africans are expected in July due to falling global oil prices and a stronger Rand, even though the government's temporary gasoline levy relief is about to expire.

Written by: Skerdian Meta • Tuesday, June 16, 2026 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Lower Oil Prices Boost Prospects for July Fuel Price Reductions in South Africa

Quick overview

Falling global oil prices and a stronger Rand are set to lead to significant fuel price cuts for South Africans in July.
Despite the end of temporary fuel levy relief, substantial over-recoveries in fuel prices indicate potential reductions for petrol and diesel.
Current projections suggest that petrol prices could decrease by around R1.10 to R1.07 per litre, while diesel prices may drop by approximately R2.32 to R2.61 per litre.
If trends continue, inland petrol prices could fall to around R26.85 for Petrol 93 and R26.99 for Petrol 95, with similar reductions expected for coastal prices.

Significant fuel price reductions for South Africans are expected in July due to falling global oil prices and a stronger Rand, even though the government’s temporary gasoline levy relief is about to expire.

Oil Price Collapse Paves the Way for Lower Fuel Costs

South African motorists could receive welcome relief at the fuel pumps in July as a sharp decline in global oil prices and continued strength in the rand improve the country’s fuel price outlook. Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to substantial over-recoveries across petrol, diesel, and illuminating paraffin, paving the way for lower fuel prices despite the scheduled return of the full fuel levy.

The latest data indicates over-recoveries of approximately R2.60 per litre for Petrol 93 and R2.57 per litre for Petrol 95. Diesel prices are showing even larger recoveries, with wholesale Diesel 0.05% recording an over-recovery of R4.28 per litre and Diesel 0.005% reaching R4.57 per litre. Illuminating paraffin is also expected to benefit from a sizeable reduction of around R4.57 per litre.

Oil Prices Retreat as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

The dramatic improvement in fuel recoveries has largely been driven by a steep fall in international crude oil prices. After previously trading above $110 per barrel, oil has retreated to around $83 per barrel as concerns over global supply disruptions have eased.

Investor sentiment improved following reports of an interim agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending months of conflict. The prospect of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal has eased fears of supply shortages that had previously pushed energy prices sharply higher.

At the same time, the South African rand has strengthened toward R16 against the U.S. dollar, further reducing the cost of imported fuel and adding to the positive pricing outlook.

Fuel Levy Returns but Cuts Still Expected

Although the underlying fuel recoveries are substantial, motorists will not receive the full benefit because the temporary fuel levy relief introduced by the National Treasury is ending.

After half of the levy was restored in June, the remaining relief will expire in July. This means R1.50 per litre will be added back to petrol prices, while diesel will see R1.96 per litre reintroduced through the fuel levy.

Even after accounting for these higher taxes, the fuel price outlook remains favourable.

Current projections indicate Petrol 93 could still decline by around R1.10 per litre, while Petrol 95 is expected to fall by approximately R1.07 per litre. Diesel prices could see even larger reductions, with wholesale Diesel 0.05% projected to decrease by about R2.32 per litre and Diesel 0.005% by roughly R2.61 per litre.

Expected July Pump Prices

If current trends continue through the remainder of the month, inland motorists could see Petrol 93 fall from R27.95 to approximately R26.85 per litre, while Petrol 95 may decline from R28.06 to R26.99. Wholesale diesel prices are also expected to move significantly lower, with Diesel 0.05% projected to fall to around R25.60 and Diesel 0.005% to approximately R26.65 per litre.

Coastal fuel prices are expected to follow a similar pattern, with Petrol 93 projected to decline to roughly R26.06 per litre and Petrol 95 to R26.12. Diesel and illuminating paraffin are also expected to post sizeable reductions.

While the official July fuel prices will depend on market conditions during the remainder of the month, the combination of lower oil prices and a stronger rand has significantly improved the outlook, offering motorists meaningful relief despite the return of the full fuel levy.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.