Gold Price Forecast: XAU Holds $4,065 Descending Base as Swiss Accord Deconstructs Geopolitical Premium

Quick overview

Institutional defensive positioning on the world stage for the precious metals is currently undergoing massive volume consolidation between the need to diversify structural reserves and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) was relatively stable in early trade Wednesday (June 24, 2026) and printed a small intraday gain of +0.12% at $4,065.96.

The major players in bullion are building blocks of physical accumulation around a key area of structural channel support in the face of short-term liquidations from macro funds rebalancing.

De-Escalation of Middle East Eases Safe-Haven Pressure

The correction in paper gold today is largely a result of the easing of the war premium related to the Middle East crisis that has recently erupted. Since the finalization last week (June 19, Swiss date) in Switzerland of the U.S.-Iran interim accord, the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU), maritime security has stabilized with the recovery of 85% of normal commercial shipping capacity through the Strait of Hormuz. As such, the price of front-month Brent crude has collapsed through $77 per barrel.

As a result of this move, energy shocks that stem from the Middle East crisis have become less relevant as a near-term hedge from a safe-haven standpoint. But while it may be true that minor retaliatory attacks on Iranian targets provide the market with a constant baseline reminder of potential instability in the region, such factors do not currently provide enough support to drive a large long-term bid for precious metals.

The Warsh Doctrine Supports Real Yields and the U.S. Dollar

The other factor in limiting the recovery for gold is the monetary hawkishness displayed in the Fed’s June 16-17 FOMC meeting. This policy represents the first major appearance under new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, a hawk who does not believe the time is appropriate for an easing of rate targets given the stubborn nature of the core CPI (4.1 percent) and headline inflation figures (3.8 percent).

As such, Warsh is a staunch supporter of the monetarist approach in the sense that he wants to wait and see if inflation is moving downward before cutting the federal funds target rate.

This approach is now confirmed by bank of America, which believes that Warsh may yet add an additional 75 basis points of rate increases during the rest of 2026. Consequently, the U.S. dollar has reached new multi-month highs. Rising real yields due to the Warsh doctrine and the hawkish Fed approach also raise the cost to investors in holding onto non-yielding metals.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Defends Core 2H Descending Channel Base

On the 2h chart spot gold has moved directly into a very large channel bottom area. XAU/USD is now standing near a key long-term downward trendline, originating from a series of macro tops and currently near the lower support level of the channel, where it has multiple prior test points (marked by circles).

This level is well below the 2h EMA 200 (4,288.13). The 14 period RSI is extremely bearish in oversold territory (28). The MACD histogram appears to be stabilizing in the negative.

Here is a strategy for trading gold at these levels.

If a candle stabilizes at the downward trendline support zone 4,017.16 then we can expect to initiate a long entry with a stop-loss order of 3,961.69, taking the first profit at 4,093.43, extending to 4,211.30.

If instead one prefers to be short on dips, then they should look to short from a weak relief bounce to the level around 4,211.30 to 4,284.80, taking the first profit at 3,903.44, with stop-loss order over the 4,300.00 level.

Gold is in a major correction at the moment. While Kevin Warsh’s Fed hawkishness will underpin the US Dollar, the strong 17-month PBOC buying campaign coupled with the extremely stretched bearishness of the technical backdrop should see XAU/USD extend for a tactical relief rally as the June cycle continues.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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