Can BTC Break Above $65,000 as Bitcoin ETF Inflows End 10-Day Selloff?

Bitcoin BTC/USD rebounded toward $64,000 after spot ETF flows turned positive, easing institutional selling pressure and giving bulls a fresh test at the $65,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Rebounds as ETF Flows Turn Positive

Bitcoin pushed back toward $64,000 as ETF demand improved and forced-selling pressure faded. The move suggests institutional distribution may be easing after weeks of outflows weighed on sentiment.

ETF Inflows Signal Selling Pressure Is Easing

The biggest catalyst behind Bitcoin’s rebound was the return of positive spot ETF flows.

After 10 straight days of outflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined $221 million net inflow on July 9. That shift matters because ETF flows have become one of the clearest real-time gauges of institutional demand.

The previous outflow streak removed roughly $2.73 billion from the market, adding pressure during Bitcoin’s recent decline. A sustained return to inflows would strengthen the case that the latest selloff was a capitulation phase rather than the start of a deeper breakdown.

Broader Risk Rebound Helps BTC

Bitcoin also benefited from a broader market rebound.

The total crypto market rose more than 2%, while Bitcoin outperformed with a gain above 3% at one point. Derivatives pressure also eased, with Bitcoin liquidations falling sharply over the past 24 hours.

That cleaner leverage backdrop gives BTC more room to recover without immediately triggering another cascade of forced selling.

A weaker U.S. dollar and renewed strength in Asian semiconductor and AI stocks also supported risk appetite, helping Bitcoin trade more like a macro-sensitive asset than a purely crypto-driven market.

Bitcoin Price Models Send Mixed Signals

Bitcoin price models remain divided.

The stock-to-flow model remains highly bullish, suggesting Bitcoin could eventually move much higher if scarcity again becomes the dominant pricing force. Some versions point toward extremely aggressive targets by 2027, though the model has failed badly before during major macro drawdowns.

The four-year halving cycle model is more cautious. If Bitcoin continues to follow prior bear-market rhythms, the next major cycle bottom may not arrive until late 2026. That would imply more downside risk before the next sustained bull leg.

The power law model offers a middle ground. It suggests Bitcoin is still within a long-term bullish channel, with current support near the $60,000 region and a much higher long-term fair-value estimate. However, its range is wide enough that traders should treat it as a framework, not a precise signal.

Institutions Are Still Watching for Clarity

Bitwise recently argued that Bitcoin’s “floor is rising” as the marginal holder shifts from retail speculators toward professional allocators.

That does not mean downside risk is gone. But it suggests the current bear market may be structurally different from previous cycles, with institutions increasingly treating pullbacks as accumulation opportunities rather than existential threats.

Still, many large investors are waiting for clearer U.S. regulation, inflation data, and Federal Reserve guidance before increasing exposure.

BTC Technical Analysis – $63,600 Is the Key Support

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s short-term setup is cautiously constructive.

BTC is holding above the $63,600 area, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level cited by traders. As long as that level holds, bulls can target $65,000.

A clean break above $65,000 would improve momentum and could open the path toward $66,000, a level many analysts view as the next confirmation zone for broader upside.

On the downside, a break below $63,600 would weaken the rebound and could trigger a retest of $62,500. Below that, the psychological $60,000 support becomes the major line for bulls to defend.

Macro Events Could Decide Bitcoin’s Next Move

Bitcoin’s recovery remains macro-dependent.

The next major catalyst is the U.S. CPI report on July 14, followed by the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28-29. Softer inflation data could support risk assets and help Bitcoin test $65,000-$66,000. Hotter inflation could revive rate concerns and pressure BTC back toward support.

Geopolitical risks also remain important, as Bitcoin has continued to trade like a risk asset during periods of market stress.

BTC Traders Are Cautiously Bullish Above $63,600

Bitcoin’s rebound has a stronger foundation now that ETF flows have turned positive and leverage pressure has eased.

However, this is not yet a confirmed breakout. Bulls need sustained ETF inflows and a move above $65,000 to prove the recovery has legs.

For now, BTC remains constructive above $63,600. A breakout above $65,000-$66,000 would shift momentum clearly bullish, while a break below $62,500 would put the recent recovery at risk.